2018年-FSB全球金融稳定委员会_Global_Shadow_Banking_Monitoring_Report_2017_103页_2mb

Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2017 Summary

Core Content Overview

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) conducts an annual monitoring exercise to assess global trends and risks in the shadow banking system. This report outlines the seventh annual monitoring exercise, covering data up to end-2016 from 29 jurisdictions, including Luxembourg for the first time. These jurisdictions represent over 80% of global GDP. The report also includes a classification of non-bank financial entities in China into the FSB’s narrow measure of shadow banking, which is based on a conservative assessment of potential financial stability risks.

The FSB aims to monitor non-bank financial intermediation, which includes insurance corporations, pension funds, other financial intermediaries (OFIs), and financial auxiliaries. The report highlights the growth and trends in these sectors and evaluates their interconnectedness with the banking system, as well as the risks associated with the narrow measure of shadow banking.

Main Observations

1. Monitoring Universe of Non-bank Financial Intermediation (MUNFI)

• Growth: MUNFI, which includes all non-bank financial intermediation, grew in 2016 at a slightly faster rate than in 2015, reaching $160 trillion for 21 jurisdictions and the euro area.
• Share of Global Financial Assets: MUNFI accounted for 48% of global financial assets, representing a fifth consecutive year of increase.
• Composition:
  • Insurance corporations: $29 trillion
  • Pension funds: $31 trillion
  • OFIs: $99 trillion
• OFIs now represent 30% of global financial assets, the highest level since 2002.
• Captive financial institutions and money lenders have become the second largest subsector of OFIs, following investment funds.

2. Narrow Measure of Shadow Banking

• Definition: The narrow measure includes non-bank entities involved in credit intermediation that may pose financial stability risks.
• Growth: In 2016, the narrow measure grew by 7.6%, reaching $45.2 trillion for 29 jurisdictions, representing 28% of MUNFI and 13% of total global financial assets.
• Geographic Contribution:
  • China: Added $7.0 trillion (15.5% of the narrow measure)
  • Luxembourg: Added $3.2 trillion (7.2% of the narrow measure)
• Concentration: Over 75% of the narrow measure's assets are concentrated in six jurisdictions.
• Key Subsectors:
  • Collective Investment Vehicles (CIVs): Represent 72% of the narrow measure, with 11% growth in 2016.
  • Non-bank entities engaged in short-term loan provision: Shrank by 3.8%, now at 6% of the narrow measure.
  • Broker-dealers: Declined by 3.0%, now at 8% of the narrow measure.
  • Securitisation-based credit intermediation: Increased slightly in 2016, representing 10% of the narrow measure.

Risks and Trends

1. Risks within the Narrow Measure

• CIVs: Have grown significantly and are more susceptible to liquidity transformation and maturity transformation, especially in fixed income funds and money market funds (MMFs).
• Finance Companies: In some jurisdictions, they tend to have high leverage and maturity transformation, increasing their vulnerability to roll-over risk during market stress.
• Broker-dealers: Use significant leverage, though generally lower than pre-crisis levels. They may still be at risk of runs or liquidity shocks if reliant on short-term wholesale funding.

2. Interconnectedness

• Banks and OFIs: The level of interconnectedness between banks and OFIs through credit and funding relationships is at 2003–2006 levels.
• Cross-jurisdictional linkages: In some jurisdictions, OFIs are heavily linked to insurance corporations and pension funds, which provide funding.
• Cross-border interconnectedness: The report emphasizes the need for further analysis and improved data to better understand global linkages.

Methodology and Recommendations

1. Monitoring Approach

• The FSB uses a two-step process:
  • Step 1: "Cast the net wide" to include all non-bank credit intermediation.
  • Step 2: Narrow focus to activities that may pose systemic risk or involve regulatory arbitrage.
• The narrow measure is classified into five economic functions based on FSB guidelines.

2. Recommendations from the July 2017 Assessment

• Enhance system-wide oversight of shadow banking and implement the 2015–16 Peer Review recommendations.
• Improve data granularity:
  • Encourage more detailed reporting of short- and long-term assets and liabilities.
  • Enhance cross-border interconnectedness analysis.
• Supplement flow of funds data with supervisory and commercial data where needed.
• Monitor emerging risks closely and share information on fast-growing risks.

Key Improvements in the 2017 Exercise

• Luxembourg was added, enhancing coverage of the global investment fund sector and captive financial institutions.
• Data quality improved, with more granular submissions from jurisdictions.
• Case studies were included in Annex 3, focusing on:
  • The non-bank credit cycle
  • Corporate cash holdings as a demand factor
  • Housing finance market adaptations
  • Loan funds in the EU

Conclusion

The FSB continues to refine its monitoring framework to better assess shadow banking risks and interconnectedness. While the narrow measure of shadow banking remains a key focus, the overall growth of non-bank financial intermediation highlights the need for ongoing vigilance and policy adaptation. The inclusion of China and Luxembourg improves the global scope and accuracy of the analysis, and the collaborative case studies provide deeper insights into specific risks and activities. The July 2017 assessment underscores the importance of systemic oversight, data consistency, and policy implementation to ensure the resilience of the financial system.