2016年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_Islamic_Republic_of_Afghanistan_for_the_Period_FY17_to_FY20_83页_1mb

Afghanistan Country Partnership Framework (CPF) Summary (FY17-FY20)

I. Introduction

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) outlines the World Bank Group (WBG) strategic engagement in Afghanistan from FY17 to FY20. It replaces the previous Interim Strategy Notes (ISNs) with a more flexible and responsive medium-term framework. The CPF is aligned with the government's "Realizing Self-Reliance: Commitments to Reforms and Renewed Partnership" and the draft National Peace and Development Framework (ANPDF). It is based on the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) completed in February 2016 and includes funding from IDA, ARTF, and other trust funds.

II. Country Context and Development Agenda

2.1 Social and Political Context

• Afghanistan has been in constant conflict since 1979, with no durable political settlement.
• The conflict has weakened state institutions, exacerbated ethnic divisions, and undermined the rule of law.
• The National Unity Government (NUG) was formed in 2014, but internal divisions have made consensus politics difficult.
• Civilian casualties from conflict rose sharply in 2015, with a 37% increase in female casualties.
• The political situation remains fragile, and corruption is pervasive, fueled by the narcotics trade and large off-budget aid inflows.

2.2 Recent Economic Developments

• Economic growth averaged 9.4% per year between 2003 and 2012, but fell sharply to 0.8% in 2015.
• Per capita GDP in 2014 was $680, three times the level in 2003.
• Security expenditures increased from 25% of total spending in 2006 to 48% in 2014.
• Domestic revenue mobilization has been limited, with revenues at 8.4% of GDP in 2014, up from 5.8% in 2013.
• Aid dependency remains high, with civilian aid expected at $4 billion per year by 2020 to fund basic services and development programs.

2.3 Poverty Profile

• Poverty levels remained high at 36% in 2012, rising to 40% in 2014.
• Female-headed households are disproportionately affected by poverty.
• Rural poverty rates are 10 percentage points higher than urban.
• Regional disparities are significant, with the Northeast, West Central, and East regions having the highest poverty rates.
• Shock vulnerability is high, especially among poor households, with 59% experiencing water shortages and 41% suffering from natural disasters.
• Poor nutrition among children (41% stunted) affects welfare and education outcomes.

2.4 Drivers of Poverty and Development Challenges

• Fragility and conflict remain key challenges, with internal displacement reaching over 1 million.
• Demographic and geographic factors exacerbate development constraints, including high population growth (3%) and difficult topography.
• Declining aid and increasing security spending threaten the sustainability of development efforts.
• Agriculture is a major growth driver, but vulnerable to climate change.
• Extractive industries and regional trade also have significant potential for growth.
• Private sector development is critical but challenged by weak governance and limited access to finance.

III. World Bank Group Partnership Strategy

3.1 Government Program and Medium-Term Strategy

• The CPF is designed to support government reforms and development priorities.
• It emphasizes flexibility in the use of aid resources and aligns with the government's Self-Reliance Mutual Accountability Framework (SMAF).

3.2 Proposed World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework

3.2.1 Lessons from ISN Learning Review, Independent Evaluations, and Stakeholder Consultations

• The CPF incorporates lessons learned from previous strategy notes and evaluations.
• It emphasizes institutional strengthening, social inclusion, and inclusive growth.

3.2.2 Overview of World Bank Group Strategy

• Pillar 1: Building Strong and Accountable Institutions

  • Objective 1.1: Improve public financial management and fiscal self-reliance.
  • Objective 1.2: Improve performance of key government ministries and municipalities.
  • Objective 1.3: Improve service delivery through enhanced citizen engagement.

• Pillar 2: Supporting Inclusive Growth

  • Objective 2.1: Improve business regulatory environment and access to finance.
  • Objective 2.2: Improve domestic and regional integration (transport, trade, and ICT connectivity).
  • Objective 2.3: Increase power generation and access to electricity.
  • Objective 2.4: Increase agricultural productivity.
  • Objective 2.5: Improve regulatory environment for extractive industries.

• Pillar 3: Social Inclusion

  • Objective 3.1: Improve human development.
  • Objective 3.2: Enhance social protection for the poor and vulnerable.
  • Objective 3.3: Improve government and community capacity to manage and respond to natural disasters.

3.3 Implementing the Afghanistan Country Partnership Framework

• Cross-Cutting Issues: Includes gender focus, private sector engagement, and risk management.
• Financial Envelope: Expected IDA allocations and ARTF funding will support the CPF.
• Implementation Strategies: Focus on capacity building, institutional reforms, and private sector development.
• Partnerships and Donor Coordination: Emphasizes collaboration with government, NGOs, and international partners.
• Fiduciary Management and Implementation: Ensures transparency, accountability, and effective resource use.
• Monitoring and Evaluation: Aims to track progress and impact through performance indicators.

IV. Managing Risks to the CPF Program

• The CPF acknowledges risks such as fragility, conflict, political uncertainty, and economic volatility.
• Debt sustainability is a concern, with external debt being highly sensitive to donor grants and exchange rate depreciation.
• The July 2016 debt sustainability analysis classified Afghanistan as high risk of debt distress despite low public debt (7% of GDP).
• A scenario replacing 15% of grants with external borrowing from 2019 could lead to a breach in the PV-of-debt-to-exports ratio (over 150% by 2030) and PV-of-debt-to-GDP ratio.

V. Key Highlights

• IDA and ARTF funding are central to the CPF.
• Private sector development is a priority, but challenged by weak governance.
• Agriculture and extractive industries are key growth drivers.
• Poverty reduction requires targeted programs and increased aid.
• Climate change and natural disasters increase vulnerability.
• Fiscal constraints and security expenditures limit development funding.
• Gender inclusion and social safety nets are emphasized in the CPF.
• Strengthening institutions and public financial management are critical for sustainable development.

VI. Annexes and Figures

• Annex 1: CPF Results Monitoring Matrix for FY17-FY20.

• Annex 2: Selected Economic Indicators.

• Annex 3: Summary Review of the Afghanistan Interim Strategy Note.

• Annex 4: Summary of Consultations on the Afghanistan CPF.

• Annex 5: Selected Indicators of Bank Portfolio Performance and Management.

• Annex 6: Afghanistan Operations Portfolio (IDA).

• Annex 7: IFC Statement of Committed and Outstanding Portfolio.

• Annex 8: IFC Historical Country Summary.

• Figure 1: Conflict-related civilian casualties.

• Figure 2: GDP growth and sector contributions (2006-2015).

• Figure 3: Fiscal vulnerabilities due to security expenditures and lower revenues.

• Figure 4: Regional disparities in poverty trends.

VII. Conclusion

The CPF aims to support Afghanistan's development through institutional strengthening, inclusive growth, and social inclusion. It addresses fragility, poverty, and economic challenges while emphasizing flexibility, collaboration, and sustainable development. The success of the CPF will depend on effective implementation, donor coordination, and addressing systemic issues such as corruption, weak governance, and fiscal constraints.