2025-06-11-Jefferies-销售可能加速_12页_701kb

Equity Research Summary: India Property Sector

• Sales Acceleration: Severe market slowdown in FY25 indicated delays in approvals due to elections, but FY26 shows strong project launches driving sales acceleration. Expected pre-sales growth of 22% YoY, with key developments from DLF, Prestige Estates, and others. Launches like DLF's Privana and Prestige's Oakwood will boost visibility.

• Rate Cuts and Affordability: Lower mortgage rates enhance affordability in mid/affordable segments, supporting volume growth. Although correlation with sales volumes isn't strong, accessibility increases for lower-income groups.

• Valuations Potential: A drop in interest rates typically leads to developer valuations rerating by 20-50%. Current stocks trade near 5-year averages but may rise further with sales growth. Past performance suggests reverse sensitivity for smaller-ticket developers.

• Inventory and Market Trends: New launches decreased YoY, reflecting lower absorption growth. NCR shows strong premiumization, yet price increases are selective across cities. Inventory levels are about 18 months, but variations exist across segments.

• Recommendations: Suggest investors focus on DLF, Godrej Properties, and others. Lower-risk bets on listed REITs, while considering buy/sell ratings for specific entities. Caution advised for smaller developers due to rate sensitivity, implying potential liquidity issues.

Overall Outlook: Upside driven by construction velocity, affordability factors, and sector-specific trends; however, risks include regulatory shifts and intense competition.