2025-06-05-Jefferies-法思诺（FAST）_5月销售_稳固的日均销售额可能受价格支撑；非住宅市场拐点持续_8页_207kb

Fastenal Equity Research Summary (June 5, 2025)

• Key Performance Metrics: Organic average daily sales (ADS) growth in May reached 9.3% year-over-year, up from 6.5% in April, exceeding prior monthly averages. This improvement supports a stronger than expected second-quarter performance, with consensus net sales forecasted at +7.5%, requiring a 7.3% ADS increase in June to meet targets. A 3-4% pricing tailwind from tariff-related actions likely contributed to the results.

• End Market Analysis: Non-residential (non-Resi) sales showed positive inflection, growing 3.3% YoY after three consecutive positive readings, ending a 31-month decline. Heavy and other manufacturing markets also strengthened sequentially, with heavy manufacturing up 8.6% YoY and other at 12.8%. These markets improved despite a soft ISM reading, indicating a disconnect between "soft" and "hard" data.

• Product Lines: Fastener sales increased 8.9% YoY, safety products rose 10.4%, and other products grew 9.2% from the previous month, all above average levels. Sequential improvements suggest resilience amid challenging macro sentiments.

• Analyst Recommendations and Valuation: Jefferies maintains a Hold rating with a price target of $78, projecting a 91% upside from the last close of $40.88. Valuation is based on EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples. Risks include operational execution, cyclical downturns, margin pressures, inventory management, and new competition.

Jury Instructions Remain unchanged.