2025-05-20-Jefferies-玩具数据下载截至4月玩具支出呈正增长_12页_701kb

Equity Research Summary: Toy Industry Analysis

In this report dated May 20, 2025, Jefferies analyzes the toy industry based on aggregated data from sources like Numerator, Similarweb, and Sensor Tower. The overall toy spending trend was positive in April 2025, with a year-over-year increase in purchase frequency and spend per trip, potentially influenced by a later Easter holiday. Economic uncertainty persists, but the industry shows resilience. Companies like Hasbro and Mattel lagged overall growth but maintained their sector ranks. Pokémon leads with significant growth, while crafting-related products from companies like Horizon Group and Crayola are performing well. In the digital space, Magic: The Gathering Arena (Hasbro) is the only app with positive downloads and MAU growth, while Mattel's American Girl site dominates web traffic trends.

Valuation uses methodologies including Sum of the Parts for Hasbro and EPS/EBITDA multiples for Mattel, with price targets and risk factors outlined. Key risks include competition, shifting consumer preferences, online trends, and macroeconomic factors. Analyst certifications confirm adherence to research standards, with disclosures on conflicts of interest.

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