20211215-USDA-Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook__December_2021_30页_1mb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook: December 2021 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an outlook for U.S. and Mexican sugar supplies and imports for the 2021/22 marketing year, highlighting changes in production, imports, and ending stocks, along with implications for market prices and trade policies.

Key Information

U.S. Sugar Outlook

• Supply and Use: Total sugar supply for 2021/22 is estimated at 14,018,000 STRV, with total use unchanged at 12,340,000 STRV.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced by 87,000 STRV to 1,678,000 STRV, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.6%.
• Beginning Stocks: Revised downward by 26,000 STRV to 1,702,000 STRV due to import data corrections.
• Production:
  • Beet Sugar: Production decreased by 20,000 STRV to 5,393,000 STRV.
  • Cane Sugar: Production decreased by 72,000 STRV to 3,847,000 STRV, primarily due to reduced yields in Louisiana.
  • Louisiana Cane Sugar: Production fell by 4.1% to 1,712,000 STRV due to lower yields.
  • Florida and Texas: Production remains unchanged.
• Imports:
  • Mexico: Imports are projected at 1,065,000 STRV, a 19,000 STRV decrease from the previous month.
  • High-Tier Imports: Increased by 50,000 STRV to 150,000 STRV due to higher actual entries and favorable price spreads.
  • Non-Program Imports: Increased by 31,000 STRV to 1,215,000 STRV.
• Trade Policy:
  • U.S. Needs Formula: Based on the 13.5% stocks-to-use ratio, with an adjusted Export Limit of 908,730 STRV due to the November 23, 2021 increase.
  • Suspension Agreements: DOC is calculating the Target Quantity of U.S. Needs based on the December WASDE.
  • Scenarios for Export Limit: Two scenarios were outlined, with possible outcomes based on the calculated Export Limit.

Mexican Sugar Outlook

• Exports: Reduced by 16,400 MT to the U.S., with exports to other countries increased by the same amount.
• Production: No significant changes reported, but export allocation adjustments are noted.

Main Points

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use

• The 2021/22 U.S. sugar supply is reduced due to lower beginning stocks, decreased beet and cane production, and a decrease in Mexico imports.
• High-tier imports increased significantly due to favorable price spreads and higher actual entries.
• Ending stocks are reduced to 1.678 million STRV, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.6%.

Production Trends

• Beet Sugar: Production is down 20,000 STRV due to higher shrinkage in sugarbeet piles.
• Cane Sugar: Louisiana's production is reduced by 72,000 STRV, while Florida and Texas remain stable.
• October Melt: Sugarcane refiners recorded a record-high melt rate, contributing to higher deliveries.

Import Adjustments

• Mexico's export allocation is adjusted, with 12,800 STRV granted entry after September 30.
• High-tier imports are expected to continue increasing due to the price spread and import pace.

Market Prices and Margins

• U.S. refined and raw cane sugar prices are higher than recent years.
• Price margins between U.S. and world sugar futures remain favorable for high-tier imports.
• The U.S. duty on raw sugar is 15.36 cents per pound, while refined sugar has a duty of 16.21 cents per pound.

Conclusion

The U.S. sugar market for 2021/22 is characterized by reduced supplies, lower ending stocks, and a stable use level. Mexico's sugar exports are down, but high-tier imports have increased, influencing market dynamics. The U.S. Needs formula and export limit adjustments are closely monitored, with potential impacts on trade flows. Price spreads and import data corrections are key factors affecting supply and demand balance.