2025-06-05-Jefferies-航空航天与国防领域需知_北约会议_波音关税减免_8页_129kb

报告摘要

Covers European A&D sector, events like NATO's capability meeting, and US Boeing tariffs.
Key topics: US commitment to NATO, ammunition production needs, de-risking Boeing orders through potential tariffs, Airshow Paris upcoming.

Secretary General Mark Rutte: Reaffirmed US commitment to NATO and troops in Europe. Suggested potential reduction in needed European brigades.
Key Concern: Emphasized threats requiring increased spending/r产能, particularly due to Russia's high rate (4x NATO annual) of ammunition production relative to its economy (smaller than NATO combined). Called for preparation for a potential direct conflict in 4-5 years.
Implications: Questioning fairness regarding troop funding, potential slight negative for European defense capabilities, clear positive for companies focusing on ammunition significantly increasing production.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick: Announced potential zero tariffs on aerospace parts/tools in exchange for Boeing aircraft purchases, similar to the UK deal.
Signals: Suggests US export success driven by the aerospace industry. Indicates positive momentum seen by industry management throughout Q1.
Paris Airshow Context: May increase competition for Airbus before the show, especially given press speculation of a major Chinese order. Deal success (particularly with EU) would be a key positive for the sector.

Airbus Group NV
- Rating: Buy
- Valuation: SOTP-based
- Recent PT Update: Buy $175.00 (as of May 2, 2025)
- Risks: Ramp up constraints, airline bankruptcies.
Rheinmetall AG
- Rating: Buy
- Valuation: SOTP-based
- Recent PT Update: I:Buy $1,880.00 (as of May 2, 2025)
- Risks: Capacity expansion challenges, potential curbing of equipment expenditure growth if the Russia/Ukraine conflict ends.
The Boeing Company (BA)
- Rating: Buy
- Valuation: Based on future FCF Yield estimate
- Recent PT Update: Buy $210.00 (as of Feb 3, 2025)
- Risks: Civil aircraft order cancellations, development cost overruns, military system disruptions.

Lemarie & Brown certify views accurately reflect their personal views on the subject securities/companies and have no compensation tied to specific recommendations/views in the report.