2025-05-26-Jefferies-航空航天与国防领域需知信息——美国关税_A330订单_普惠罢工_航班情况_7页_174kb

报告摘要

Europe Aerospace & Defense Electronics - Equity Research Summary

Increased Tariffs: US President Trump threatens 50% tariffs on EU goods starting June 1, with a July 9 negotiation deadline.
Impact Assessment:
- Airbus (Buy): 10% tariffs have manageable impact (€200m estimate). A 50% tariff would significantly worsen the situation.
- MTU Aero (Buy): Estimates €40-90m impact if no mitigation; strike currently ongoing.
- Safran (Buy): Unspecified impact; least exposed in civil sector.
- Thales (Hold): Low exposure, shares reacted minimally to tariffs.
- Rolls-Royce (Buy): Shielded from EU-US tariffs due to minimal exposure.
Sector Vulnerability: Airbus is most exposed, followed by MTU Aero and Safran; Thales and Rolls-Royce relatively safer.

Positive Catalyst: Airbus and Rolls-Royce benefit from this order. Rolls-Royce supplies the A330neo engines.

Contract Vote: P&W workers vote on Tuesday; union claims "significant changes" in job, wage, and retirement security.
Potential Impact: End of strike could be positive for MTU Aero; no current impact on Airbus's first flights so far.

Traffic Recovery: Commercial flights up 1% year-on-year, reaching 138.3k daily, 19% above 2019 levels.
Market Outlook: Recovery momentum slowing amid economic concerns; critical for aftermarket players (Rolls-Royce, Safran, MTU Aero).

Renk (Buy): Independent director sold €2.1m worth of shares on May 22.
Thales (Hold): Shares reacted little, despite exposure.
Valuation: Rollout of rating and price targets based on multiple factors, including DCF, EV/EBITDA, etc.

Conflicts of Interest (COI): Jefferies maintains client confidentiality and has ties with companies covered.
Disclosures: Contains extensive information on ratings, equity analysis, legal compliance, and company-specific engagements by Jefferies (e.g., acting as financial advisors, market making, structuring transactions).

Other mentioned companies: Airbus, MTU Aero, Renk, Rolls-Royce, Safran, Thales

展开完整摘要