2025-06-15-Bernstein-航空航天与国防_在巴黎应提出哪些问题_（管理层问题库）_19页_417kb

Summary:

This report provides a pre-Paris Air show analysis for 2025, focusing on key themes and questions for management teams in the Aerospace & Defense sector.

Key Themes and Management Questions:

1. Air Show Outcomes and Orders: Discusses the shift away from the traditional "long before Air Show" stock trade. Emphasizes potential large announcements to support stock prices. Points out historical trend: Airbus announces more orders at the Air Show. Anticipates a major Chinese order for Airbus.

2. New Aircraft Production and Delivery Challenges:

   • Addresses bottlenecks in LEAP engine deliveries for the 2025 backlog.
   • Questions Boeing and GE on production ramps for 737MAX, 787, and GE's CFM-56/LEAP engines.
   • Details engine shortage issues (LEAP in Q2 '25, GTF due to RTX strike).
   • Analyzes A320neo family (75+/month target) and A350 delivery outlooks.
   • Notes the impact of the strike at Pratt & Whitney (RTX) on GTF deliveries.

3. Tariffs and Trade Issues: Reviews the evolving situation and its impact on companies (GE, Howmet, Safran). Questions strategy and potential outcomes.

4. Aftermarket Demand: Highlights strong aftermarket demand due to legacy programs ("slow start is good for aftermarket"). Explores pricing trends, PMA acceptance, and spare engine markets. Mentions opportunities from newer blade designs impacting engine programs.

5. Defense Spending and Security: Acknowledges continued government push for European defense spending. Briefly touches upon security issues related to platforms (FCAS) and geopolitical conflicts (Israel-Iran). Examines Dassault's e-commerce strategy.

Company-Specific Focused Areas (Based on Analyst Reports):

• Boeing: 737MAX, 787 ramp-ups, tariff environment, engine inventories.
• GE: Aftermarket trends (parts sales), LEAP challenges, potential defense upgrades.
• Safran: LEAP delays, aftermarket demand (spares), engine profitability targets.
• Howmet: Tariff impact, order visibility, blade design progress.
• MTU: GTF issues, engine aftermarket prospects, MRO strategy.
• Rolls-Royce: Civil aftermarket efficiency, pricing, engine issues (Trent 1000/XWB), defense business.
• Airbus: Order visibility, delivery bottlenecks, engine supply chain, new aircraft (A220, FCAS), cash flow management.
• Defense Companies (BAE, Thales, Leonardo, Dassault): Funding levels, margins, geopolitical customer requirements, portfolio focus, and government integration.

Investment Implications:

• Outperform ratings issued for: Airbus, Boeing, GE, Howmet, Leonardo, MTU.
• Market-Perform ratings for: Rolls-Royce, RTX, Safran, Thales.
• An investor update is provided, noting the performance of the ETF benchmark.