2025-05-29-Jefferies-航空航天与国防领域须知_美国出口_空客交付_普惠_北约_31型护卫舰_8页_108kb

Summary of Aerospace & Defense Electronics Equity Research

Key News Events

• US Export Ban on Jet Engines to China: The US suspends exports of critical jet engine technologies to China, potentially affecting aircraft deliveries to China, including those by Airbus; impacts on aviation equipment are pending review, and the ban may not apply to all aircraft deliveries.
• Airbus Delivery Delays: Reports indicate potential delays to 2027/2028 due to supply chain issues; Jefferies views these as noise as delivery targets are behind schedule and not firm.
• P&W Strike Impact: RTX CEO confirms the strike will reduce Q2 free cash flow due to lower engine shipments, but full-year guidance unchanged; MTU may benefit from carry-over tax breaks.
• NATO Troop Request: NATO asks Germany for 7 additional brigades (~40,000 troops), raising the total target from ~80 to potentially 120-30.
• Babcock Type 31 Frigate: First frigate, HMS Venturer, rolled out of the assembly hall; this is a key de-risking milestone and may help reduce valuation gaps compared to peers like BAE Systems.

Company Highlights

• Safran (Buy): US trade war escalation with engine export ban to China; likely impacts COMAC's C919 jet, but unclear effect on commercial airline deliveries.
• Airbus (Buy): Delivery delays to 2027/2028 noted; May 2025 deliveries are soft; Jefferies downplays long-term impact as planning is proactive.
• MTU (Buy): P&W strike affects RTX's Q2 FCF; MTU benefits from potential tax relief from 2024 compensation payments.
• Babcock (Buy): Successful rollout of HMS Venturer frigate; progress reduces risk for the program and may close valuation gaps.
• General: Company valuations include ratings like Buy, Hold, Underperform; key risks include geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and financial uncertainties.

Valuation and Recommendations

• Ratings: Several companies rated Buy (e.g., Safran, Airbus, MTU, Babcock), Hold, or Underperform based on market performance, growth, and risks.
• Risks: Potential conflicts of interest due to relationships with companies, currency fluctuations, and regulatory disclosures; advice to investors to use this as one factor in decision-making.