2025-06-02-IMF-旅游业对小发展中国家增长的长期和短期影响（英）_63页_2mb

Long and Short-Term Impact of Tourism on Growth in Small Developing States

Summary

This paper investigates the resilience of tourism-dependent Small Developing States (SDS) to economic shocks and the short-term spillovers of tourism. Using data from 19 SDS, the study employs two temporal horizons: long-term potential output growth and short-term VAT revenue elasticity based on high-frequency data from Cabo Verde.

Key Findings

• Resilience to Recessions:
  Tourism-dependent SDS exhibit less persistent impacts of recessions on potential growth compared to larger emerging markets, owing to faster recoveries. This resilience is linked to their high reliance on tourism, which drives rapid rebound in economic activity.

• Elasticity of Tourism:
  Short-term elasticity of tourism growth to potential output is approximately 0.4 over 12 months in Cabo Verde. Tourism-centric islands (e.g., Sal, Boa Vista) experience strong positive impacts, while non-tourism-centric regions see muted or negative effects, indicating limited spillovers.

• Asymmetric Impacts:
  A 20% decline in tourist arrivals in tourism-dependent islands could reduce national GDP by ~3.2% and increase public debt by 3.6 percentage points. Conversely, improved inter-island connectivity could amplify GDP growth to 8% for similar arrivals, boosting economic inclusivity.

• Robustness:
  Analyses across regions (Sub-Saharan Africa, Caribbean, Asia) and alternative recession definitions confirm the resilience of SDS and the stability of short-term elasticities. The findings hold despite variations in shock identification.

Recommendations

1. Optimize Tourism:
   Strengthen tourism infrastructure and integrate it with broader economic growth through inclusive policies.

2. Diversify Economy:
   Enhance sectoral linkages between tourism and non-tourism areas to mitigate vulnerability to external shocks.

3. Fiscal and External Stability:

   • Maintain prudent fiscal policies to build buffers during downturns.
   • Reduce Balance of Payments risks through diversification into renewable energy and trade resilience.

Key Metrics

• Elasticity: Tourism short-run elasticity to GDP growth: 0.4 (Cabo Verde).
• Recovery Curve: SDS recover faster from recessions than EMDEs.
• Policy Impact: Integrated tourism reforms could double GDP growth elasticity compared to current levels.

This analysis underscores that while tourism is a robust growth driver, diversification is critical for long-term stability in SDS.