旅游业是德国经济增长的驱动力（英文版）_22页_1mb

Summary of Tourism as a Driver of Economic Growth in Germany

Core Content

This document presents an analysis of the economic impact of tourism in Germany, focusing on its contribution to gross value added and employment, as well as the role of digitisation in shaping the industry's future. It also outlines the methodology used in the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) and provides key figures for 2015, comparing them with data from 2010 to highlight trends and changes.

Main Points

1. Economic Contribution of Tourism

• Tourism Spending in 2015:
  Total tourism consumption in Germany reached €287.2 billion.

  • Domestic tourists accounted for €224.6 billion (78%).
  • Foreign tourists contributed €39.6 billion (14%).
  • Other consumption (such as rent payments and subsidies) amounted to €23 billion (8%).

• Breakdown of Expenditure:

  • Food and beverage-serving outlets accounted for the largest share at 17.8%.
  • Other goods (17.3%), accommodation (12.5%), air travel (7.6%), vehicle fuel (7.2%), and sporting, cultural and recreational services (7.1%) followed.

2. Value Added and Employment Effects

• Direct Gross Value Added (GVA):
  Tourism generated €105.3 billion in direct GVA in 2015, representing 3.9% of Germany's total GVA.

  • Business trips contributed €18.1 billion in direct GVA (17% of the tourism industry as a whole) and employed 533,000 people.

• Indirect GVA and Employment:
  The demand for intermediate goods and services in the tourism industry indirectly generated €76.1 billion in GVA and provided employment for 1.25 million people.

  • Total tourism effects (direct + indirect) amounted to €181.4 billion in GVA and 4.167 million jobs.

• Employment Share:
  Tourism directly employed 2.92 million people, which is 6.8% of total employment in Germany.

  • This is higher than the manufacturing of machinery and equipment (2.6%) and motor vehicle production (2.0%).

3. Tourism Industry Compared to Other Sectors

• The tourism industry ranks highly in terms of employment, behind retail (7.5%) and healthcare (7.2%), but ahead of construction (5.6%) and education (5.6%).
• In terms of GVA, tourism is comparable to retail (3.3%), machinery and equipment (3.5%), and professional and technical services (4.4%).
• Sectors like legal, accounting, and consulting services (2.8%) and financial services (2.6%) have a smaller economic impact than tourism.

4. Changes Since 2010

• Tourism Consumption Growth:
  Tourism consumption grew by 3.2% between 2010 and 2015, from €278.3 billion to €287.2 billion.

  • Direct GVA increased by 8.5% over the same period.

• Relative Share Decline:

  • The share of tourism in domestic GVA fell from 4.4% to 3.9% due to overall economic growth.
  • The share of tourism in total employment decreased slightly from 7.0% in 2010 to 6.8% in 2015, as the overall employment in Germany rose more strongly.

5. Digitisation and Its Impact

• Digital Business Models:
  Digitisation, including the sharing economy, is rapidly transforming the tourism industry.

  • Key segments affected: service brokering, accommodation, and passenger transport.

• Impact on Tourism Industry:

  • Despite these changes, the tourism industry's overall economic importance has not yet been significantly affected.
  • However, the dynamic nature of digitisation may alter this in the future.

• Opportunities and Risks:

  • Digital platforms, especially those based abroad, could extract a larger share of GVA from the German tourism market.
  • German tourism companies can leverage digitisation to expand their international reach and drive growth.

• Policy Considerations:

  • Competition policy and regulatory frameworks will be crucial in shaping the future of the tourism industry.
  • Further research is needed to develop appropriate economic policy recommendations.

Key Information

• TSA Methodology:
  The Tourism Satellite Account uses internationally accepted standards and is based on the ESA and IRTS 2008 frameworks.

  • It separates tourism expenditure into 14 product categories and categorises visitors by type (overnight, daytrip, business, private).

• Data Sources:

  • The study was commissioned by the Federal Association of the German Tourism Industry (BTW) and funded by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy.
  • It was produced by DIW Econ GmbH and is part of a broader effort to better understand and support the German tourism sector.

• Future Outlook:

  • Tourism continues to be a strategic and forward-looking industry.
  • The German government is committed to maintaining a supportive legal and business environment for the tourism sector.
  • The study aims to identify long-term trends and new prospects for tourism in Germany.

Conclusion

Tourism is a significant contributor to Germany's economy, generating substantial value added and employment. While its relative share has slightly declined compared to 2010, it remains a key industry. The rise of digital business models presents both challenges and opportunities, and the government is working to ensure that tourism continues to thrive in a changing economic landscape.