2025-06-02-IMF-基于QPM的发展中国家天气冲击与货币政策分析（英）_36页_1mb

QPM-Based Analysis of Weather Shocks and Monetary Policy in Developing Countries

Key Findings

• Weather Shocks are Supply-Side: Weather shocks, such as droughts or floods, impact agricultural production, leading to food price increases and higher headline inflation. These shocks are inherently supply-side, making policy responses challenging.
• Greater Vulnerability in Developing Countries: Factors such as high food expenditure shares in consumption baskets, large GDP contributions from agriculture, and limited central bank credibility amplify the effects of weather shocks, posing bigger challenges for monetary policy.
• Monetary Policy Trade-offs: Central banks must balance inflation control with output stabilization. Trade-offs are more acute in developing economies due to weaker inflation expectations anchoring and higher volatility in food prices.
• Policy Responses: Tightening monetary policy (e.g., raising interest rates) can mitigate second-round inflation but risks dampening economic growth. Exchange rate flexibility and credible inflation targeting frameworks can help absorb shocks.
• QPM Framework: A Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) can analyze weather shocks by incorporating sectoral decomposition (agriculture vs. non-agriculture) and inflation components (food vs. core). This supports informed monetary policy decisions.

Trade-offs and Vulnerability Factors

• Food expenditure share in the CPI basket, agricultural GDP contribution, inflation expectations anchoring, central bank credibility, and exchange rate flexibility influence how weather shocks propagate and affect policy.

Conclusion

Weather shocks present significant challenges for monetary policy in developing countries. QPM-based analysis helps policymakers understand transmission channels, assess policy trade-offs, and design effective responses to mitigate adverse effects on inflation and economic growth.