IEA-2021年第3季度天然气市场报告（英）-2021_107页_6mb

Summary of Gas Market Report Q3-2021: Analysis and Forecast to 2024

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of global natural gas markets, focusing on demand and supply trends from 2020 to 2024. It outlines the recovery from the 2020 downturn, which was caused by the mild winter and the impact of the pandemic, and forecasts future growth driven by economic activity and fuel switching from coal and oil. The report also highlights the need for stronger policies to align gas consumption with net-zero emissions goals.

Main Viewpoints

• Global Gas Demand Recovery:

  • Natural gas demand dropped by 1.9% in 2020, but is expected to rebound by 3.6% in 2021.
  • By 2024, global gas demand is projected to grow by 7% compared to pre-pandemic levels, reaching nearly 4,300 bcm.
  • The demand growth rate is expected to slow to an average of 1.7% annually between 2022 and 2024.

• Medium-Term Growth Drivers:

  • Economic activity is the primary driver of gas demand growth, accounting for about two-thirds of the total increase.
  • Fuel switching from coal and oil, especially in power generation, contributes the remaining third.
  • Industrial processes and use as a feedstock for chemicals and fertilisers are key contributors to demand growth, making up about 40% of the total increase from 2020 to 2024.

• Regional Contributions:

  • The Asia Pacific region is the largest source of gas demand growth, contributing nearly half of the global increase.
  • China and India are major drivers of this growth, alongside other emerging Asian markets.
  • The Middle East contributes close to 20% of the global increase, with power generation and water desalination as key drivers.
  • North America and Europe are mature markets with limited potential for further substitution, though they still play a role in reducing coal use and increasing gas efficiency.

• Emissions and Sustainability:

  • Current gas demand growth is not aligned with net-zero emissions pathways.
  • Policies promoting fuel substitution and energy efficiency are critical to achieving lower emissions.
  • Methane emissions can be reduced significantly with existing measures, potentially avoiding 40% of current emissions at no net cost.

Key Information

Demand Trends

• 2020-2021 Recovery:

  • The global gas demand rebound in 2021 accounted for about 40% of the total increase from 2020 to 2024.
  • The industrial sector is the largest contributor to this recovery, accounting for around 40% of the total demand growth.

• 2021-2024 Growth:

  • Gas demand is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.7% annually from 2022 to 2024.
  • The residential and commercial sectors are expected to grow at 1.6% annually, with limited long-term potential outside of a few countries.
  • The transport sector is expected to grow at a higher rate of 4.8%, mainly due to increased use of LNG in Asia.

Supply Trends

• Supply Growth:

  • Global gas production in 2024 is projected to be 6% higher than in 2019.
  • The majority of this increase comes from large conventional assets in Russia and the Middle East.
  • US shale gas production is expected to grow, supported by new investment and expanding LNG export capacity.

• LNG Market:

  • LNG trade volumes are expected to increase by 17% by 2024 compared to 2019 levels.
  • The growth of long-term LNG contracts without destination clauses and the expansion of the LNG carrier fleet are contributing to market flexibility.
  • Underground storage capacity is also expected to rise by 7% over the forecast period.

Policy and Environmental Considerations

• Need for Policy Action:

  • Without stronger policies, gas demand may continue to grow at a pace incompatible with net-zero emissions.
  • Mature markets, such as North America and Europe, have already tapped much of their potential for coal-to-gas switching and need to focus on efficiency and cleaner alternatives.

• Cleaner Gas Transition:

  • The gas industry must reduce greenhouse gas emissions, support low-carbon gas sources (e.g., hydrogen, synthetic methane, biomethane), and develop carbon management solutions.
  • Regulatory changes and infrastructure adjustments are necessary to integrate these cleaner sources into the energy system.

Economic and Climate Assumptions

• Economic Recovery:

  • The forecast assumes a strong rebound in 2021, with GDP growth of up to 6%.
  • Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.6% in 2022 and average about 3% in the following years.

• Energy Price Assumptions:

  • Futures prices from April 2021 are used as indicators for the forecast period.
  • Higher gas prices in 2021 have limited the growth of gas-fired power generation in the US, while Europe's high carbon prices have supported gas competitiveness.

Conclusion

The global gas market is expected to recover from the 2020 downturn, driven by economic activity and fuel substitution. However, this growth rate is not sufficient to align with net-zero emissions goals, highlighting the need for more aggressive policies to promote efficiency and cleaner alternatives. Asia Pacific remains the key growth driver, while mature markets face challenges in achieving further substitution. The report underscores the importance of policy, investment, and technological innovation in shaping the future of the gas industry.