2021年煤炭报告（英）-127页_14mb

Coal 2021 Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of global coal demand, supply, trade, and prices from 2019 to 2024, with a special focus on China and India. It highlights the impact of the pandemic, economic recovery, and the transition to low-carbon energy sources on coal markets. The report also emphasizes the role of coal in electricity generation and industrial applications, and the implications of policy changes and market dynamics on its future.

Main Views

• Global Coal Demand Rebounds in 2021:
  Despite a 4.4% decline in 2020, global coal demand rebounded by 6% in 2021, reaching 7,906 Mt, close to the 2013 peak.

  • China: Dominated the recovery, with a 4% increase in coal consumption to 4,130 Mt.
  • India: Grew by 13% in 2021, adding 125 Mt to coal demand.
  • United States and EU: Both saw a rebound in coal demand, though not enough to return to 2019 levels.

• Coal-fired Power Generation Reaches All-Time High in 2021:
  Global coal power generation increased by 9% in 2021 to 10,350 TWh, surpassing 2019 levels.

  • China and India: Both saw significant growth in coal-based power generation (4.1% and 11%, respectively).
  • US and EU: Experienced a rebound in coal power generation, but this is expected to decline by 2024.

• Global Coal Demand is Expected to Rise to 8025 Mt by 2024:

  • China and India: Continue to be the main drivers of coal demand, with China expected to grow by 1.1% and India by 4% annually.
  • Southeast Asia: Also contributes to growth, adding 50 Mt by 2024.
  • Advanced Economies: Will see a decline in coal demand, with the US and EU expected to decrease by 21% and 30%, respectively, by 2024.

• Non-Power Coal Consumption Weakens:

  • 2020: Non-power thermal coal use dropped by 5.4% to 1,368 Mt, mainly due to reduced demand in China and India.
  • 2021: A slight increase of 0.2% to 1,370 Mt is expected, with further modest growth in 2024.
  • China: Non-power coal use is expected to decline due to the phase-out of small, inefficient boilers.
  • India: Non-power coal use is projected to rebound by 12% in 2021 as industries recover.

• Metallurgical Coal Consumption:

  • 2020: Global metallurgical coal use dropped by 3% to 1,100 Mt, mainly due to reduced steel production outside China.
  • China: Remained the largest consumer, accounting for 68% of global met coal use.
  • 2021: Met coal use increased slightly to 1,106 Mt.
  • 2024 Forecast: Met coal consumption is expected to rise to 1,164 Mt, with India and other developing economies driving growth.

• Coal Prices Surge in 2021:

  • Thermal Coal: Spot prices in Europe reached USD 298 per tonne in early October 2021, up from USD 50 per tonne in Q2 2020.
  • Met Coal: Prices were also affected by supply constraints and market dynamics.
  • Government Intervention: Helped bring prices down by mid-November 2021.

• Supply Constraints and Policy Impact:

  • 2021: Coal production lagged behind demand, leading to shortages and higher prices.
  • China and India: Implemented policies to increase production and reduce shortages, supported by state-owned enterprises.
  • Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Such as flooding in Indonesia, limited the ability of exporters to capitalize on high prices.

• Net Zero Commitments and Coal's Future:

  • Ambitions vs. Action: Many countries, including China and India, have pledged net zero emissions, but these are not yet reflected in short-term forecasts.
  • Role of CCUS: The level of coal demand in a net zero economy will depend on the success of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies.
  • Asia's Dominance: China and India together account for two-thirds of global coal consumption, making them central to future trends.

Key Information

• China's Influence:

  • China is the largest coal consumer, producer, and importer.
  • Its power generation accounts for one-third of global coal use.
  • It continues to dominate coal markets despite efforts to expand renewables.

• India's Role:

  • India is the second-largest coal producer, consumer, and importer.
  • Its coal demand is expected to grow by 4% annually through 2024, adding 130 Mt.

• Global Trends:

  • 2020: Global coal demand dropped by 4.4%, with the US and EU seeing the largest declines.
  • 2021: A strong rebound in demand, driven by economic recovery and weather conditions.
  • 2022-2024: Global coal demand is projected to reach 8025 Mt, with continued growth in Asia and decline in advanced economies.

• Economic and Policy Drivers:

  • GDP Growth: Expected to be 4% annually from 2022 to 2024, supporting coal demand.
  • Gas Prices: A key factor in coal's competitiveness, especially in the power sector.
  • Dual-Control Policy: Led to power cuts in energy-intensive industries in China, affecting coal demand.

• Technological and Market Factors:

  • Renewables: Continue to grow, reducing coal's share in the power mix.
  • CCUS: Will play a crucial role in determining coal's long-term viability.
  • Electric Arc Furnaces (EAF): Expected to see limited growth, with a small increase in the EAF/BOF ratio.

Conclusion

Coal remains a critical component of the global energy mix, particularly in Asia. While the pandemic caused a sharp decline in demand in 2020, 2021 saw a strong rebound, with coal consumption and power generation reaching new highs. However, the long-term outlook for coal is uncertain, as net zero commitments and the expansion of renewables may eventually reduce its role. China and India are the key players in shaping these trends, with their continued reliance on coal for power and industry. The report underscores the importance of policy and market dynamics in determining the future of coal.