20140529-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_322kb
报告摘要
Daily Edge Summary - 29 May 2014
Core Content
- Date: 29 May 2014
- Topic: Market overview and analysis of key stocks and sectors
- Source: Bloomberg and Maybank ATR Kim Eng estimates
Key Market Indicators
| Indicator | Value | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| PSEi | 6,787.88 | 0.11 |
| Turnover (PHPm) | 7,221.88 | 34.57 |
| PLDT ADR (USD) | 66.71 | 0.38 |
| PLDT ADR (PHP) | 2,927.23 | 0.61 |
| Ave interbank rate | 2.13 | 12.5 bps |
| PHP/USD rate | 43.70 | (0.18) |
Analysts
- Head of Research / Economist: Luz Lorenzo
- Analysts: Laura Dy-Liacco, Rommel Rodrigo, Lovell Sarreal, Katherine Tan, Ramon Adviento
- Contact Information: All provided with phone numbers and email addresses
Top Idea: Construction Sector
EEI Corporation (EEI)
- Share Price: PHP10.10
- Recommendation: BUY (Unchanged)
- Reason: Despite an 11% drop in share price due to weaker-than-expected 1Q14 net earnings (down 52% YoY to PHP119m), the company's growth prospects remain strong.
- Order Book: Estimated to reach a record-high PHP40b this year.
- New Projects: Includes PHP10b power plant project from Phividec and Filinvest Development Corp.
- Expected Earnings:
- FY14E: PHP1b (+12% YoY)
- FY15-16: PHP1.2b (+16% YoY), PHP1.3b (+6% YoY)
- Service Contracts: EEI is targeting new service contracts in Malaysia and Kuwait by year-end.
- JV with Al Rushaid: Expected to contribute significantly, with USD151m in contracts YTD vs USD196m in 2013.
- Financial Metrics:
- Net profit to common: PHP119m (1Q14)
- EPS: PHP1.21 (2014F)
- PER: 8.3 (2015F)
- P/BV: 1.2 (2015F)
- Net gearing: 26.5% (2014F)
- ROE: 15.5% (2015F)
- ROA: 7.1% (2015F)
Market Talk
Conglomerates
- MPI-Ayala Consortium: Sole bidder for the LRT 1 South extension project.
- LRMC: Composed of MPLRC (55%), AC Infra (35%), and MIRA (10%).
- GTCAP: Planning to issue PHP12b in corporate bonds next month, with a top credit score from Philippine Rating Services Corp.
- Bond Use: Fund property and power projects of subsidiaries.
- Financial Strength: Strong liquidity, sound capital structure, and diversified portfolio.
Banks
- NPL Ratio: Down to 2.16% in March 2014, slightly below the previous month and year-ago figures.
- Gross NPL: Decreased 1% MoM to PHP93.32b.
- Loan Portfolio: Rose 2% to PHP4.3t.
- Loan Loss Reserves: Improved 1.2% to PHP131.79b.
- NPA to Gross Assets Ratio: Fell to 2.06% from 2.1% last month and 2.73% last year.
- NPA Cover Ratio: Now at 84.17%.
The Week Ahead
- Key Companies: Liberty Telecoms Holdings, Inc., Omico Corporation, Metro Alliance Holdings & Equities Corp., Philippine Business Bank, Pepsi-Cola Products Philippines, Inc., Filinvest Development Corporation, Metro Pacific Investments Corporation.
- Events: Annual Stockholder's Meetings for all listed companies.
Earnings and Valuations Summary (as of 28 May 2014)
| Stock | Share Price (PHP) | Target Price (PHP) | Upside (%) | Recommendation | Year | Net Profit (PHPm) | EPS Growth (%) | PE (x) | DPS (PHP) | Yield (%) | BV/share (PHP) | P/BV (x) | Net Gearing (%) | ROA (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDO | 88.90 | 93.50 | 5 | HOLD | 2014F | 22,319 | 6.23 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 48.03 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 13.5 |
| BPI | 87.85 | 93.50 | 6 | HOLD | 2014F | 20,765 | 5.28 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 36.75 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 16.7 |
| CHIB | 55.00 | 60.00 | 9 | HOLD | 2014F | 5,479 | 3.45 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 34.95 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 10.9 |
| EW | 30.85 | 31.80 | 3 | HOLD | 2014F | 2,661 | 2.36 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 19.47 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 13.5 |
| MBT | 86.05 | 92.00 | 7 | HOLD | 2014F | 15,219 | 5.54 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 119.85 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 15.7 |
| PBB | 24.30 | 27.00 | 11 | BUY | 2014F | 3,213 | 19.28 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 12.41 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 14.1 |
| PNB | 92.50 | 109.00 | 18 | BUY | 2014F | 5,432 | 5.00 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 28.8 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 15.7 |
| RCB | 55.85 | 65.00 | 16 | BUY | 2014F | 5,625 | 4.41 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 29.5 | 12.85 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 13.6 |
| SECB | 43.30 | 50.00 | 15 | BUY | 2014F | 4,580 | 1.66 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 7.3 | 12.41 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 14.1 |
| CIC | 36.70 | 36.50 | (1) | BUY | 2014F | 592 | 2.26 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 20.2 | 10.36 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 15.7 |
| ALI | 31.85 | 37.80 | 19 | BUY | 2014F | 15,139 | 1.07 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 24.1 | 6.15 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 10.4 |
| FLI | 1.61 | 2.20 | 37 | BUY | 2014F | 4,616 | 0.19 | 1.5 | 0.15 | 15.9 | 12.85 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 21.8 |
| EDC | 6.11 | 7.25 | 19 | BUY | 2014F | 8,052 | 0.43 | 2.9 | 0.18 | 22.6 | 2.11 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 28.4 |
| FGEN | 20.10 | 22.80 | 13 | BUY | 2014F | 3,745 | 0.11 | 1.2 | 0.50 | 11.1 | 17.05 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 10.4 |
| PCOR | 12.06 | 15.90 | 32 | BUY | 2014F | 3,213 | 19.28 | 1.2 | 0.12 | 23.6 | 119.85 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 23.8 |
Summary of Key Points
- EEI Corporation experienced a significant drop in share price due to weak Q1 earnings, but analysts suggest this is an opportunity to buy as growth prospects remain strong.
- GTCAP plans to issue PHP12b in bonds next month, backed by a strong credit rating.
- Banks showed improvement in NPL and NPA ratios, indicating better financial management.
- Market Outlook: The construction sector, especially EEI, is highlighted for its potential due to a large order book and new contracts.
- Investment Recommendations: Several stocks are recommended as BUY, including PBB, PNB, RCB, SECB, CIC, ALI, EDC, and FGEN, with varying upside potential and financial metrics.
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