2022-11-20-兰德-自动驾驶和汽车保险的未来_108页_2mb

Autonomous Vehicles and the Future of Auto Insurance Summary

Core Content

This report, authored by KARLYN D. STANLEY, MICHELLE GRISÉ, and JAMES M. ANDERSON, explores the potential impact of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on the U.S. automobile insurance system. It analyzes various insurance models, legal frameworks, and consumer acceptance factors that may arise due to the increasing adoption of AV technology.

Main Views

1. Definition of Autonomous Vehicles

• The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) uses the SAE scale to define vehicle automation levels from 0 (no automation) to 5 (full automation).
• Vehicles operating at Level 4 (high automation) can perform all driving tasks in certain circumstances without driver attention.
• Vehicles operating at Level 5 (full automation) can do all driving in all circumstances, making the human occupants mere passengers.

2. Impact on Auto Insurance

• The introduction of AVs could lead to a shift in liability from drivers to manufacturers, especially as automation reduces human error.
• However, the current insurance framework may be flexible enough to adapt to AVs, with a majority of U.S. stakeholders expressing optimism.
• Consumer acceptance is a key factor in the widespread deployment of AVs, as it influences the need for changes in insurance systems.

3. Insurance Models for AVs

The report discusses five potential models for insuring AVs:

• National No-Fault Insurance: Analogous to the vaccine or nuclear statutory insurance program. Experts believe it may not be practical due to the need for congressional legislation and a government-run claims system.
• State No-Fault Insurance: Available in states that provide for it. Experts expressed concerns that it would not incentivize manufacturers to improve AV safety.
• Manufacturer Self-Insurance: Some experts suggest that manufacturers might self-insure or purchase insurance from companies. This could allow them to bundle insurance with AVs, potentially increasing consumer trust.
• Fleet Insurance Policies: A significant majority of experts consider this a likely future model. Fleet operators may self-insure or use corporate general liability policies. This model is seen as having a well-established claims process.
• Adaptation of Existing Framework: Many stakeholders believe that the current insurance system can be adapted to accommodate AVs, especially up to Level 3, but may require changes once most vehicles reach Level 4 or 5.

4. International Models

• United Kingdom: Focuses on quick and easy compensation for victims, with a framework that includes data-sharing arrangements.
• Australia: Examines six options to cover injuries from crashes involving AVs, emphasizing the need for proportionality and scalability.
• Canada: Proposes a framework that covers driver negligence, AV technology, and data-sharing.
• Japan: Has a mandatory insurance system that may need changes to accommodate AVs.

5. Technological Impacts

• Software Updates: May reduce insurance risk by improving AV performance and safety.
• Cybersecurity: The risk of cyberattacks could influence future insurance policies.
• Sensor Costs: Experts are divided on whether the cost of repairing AV sensors will significantly increase accident costs, with some arguing that fewer collisions will offset this.

Key Information

Research Methodology

• The study involved interviews with 43 subject-matter experts from 35 organizations, including insurance companies, OEMs, government agencies, consumer groups, and academic institutions.
• Experts were also interviewed in Japan, Australia, Canada, and the UK to compare international approaches.

Findings

• Most stakeholders believe the current insurance framework can adapt to AVs, though some foresee a shift toward manufacturer liability.
• Fleet insurance is considered a likely model, but its dominance is not seen as inevitable.
• Consumer acceptance is crucial for the adoption of AVs and will influence the development of insurance frameworks.
• Data-sharing between OEMs, insurers, and regulators is seen as important for managing AV-related risks and improving safety.

Recommendations

1. Collaboration: Insurers, manufacturers, and other stakeholders should work together to develop data collection and sharing frameworks for AVs.
2. International Insights: Policymakers and insurers in the U.S. should consider international models, which may offer innovative solutions to liability and coverage issues.
3. Research: Further studies should evaluate how the fleet operator model affects consumer acceptance and how different insurance frameworks can accommodate AV technologies.

Conclusion

The increasing adoption of autonomous vehicles presents both opportunities and challenges for the auto insurance industry. While the current system may be adaptable, the shift in liability from drivers to manufacturers, along with the need for new insurance models and data-sharing practices, will require careful consideration by policymakers and industry stakeholders. Consumer acceptance and international best practices will play a significant role in shaping the future of auto insurance in the context of AVs.