20170613-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_20页_1mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 13 June 2017

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive update on the property and REITs sectors in Singapore and Hong Kong, as well as insights on Alibaba Group and other regional markets. It outlines market conditions, key financials, investment recommendations, and corporate events.

Main Points

Regional Property & REITs Update

Singapore Property & REITs (OVERWEIGHT):
- Investors are showing interest in property and REITs due to the potential for slower-than-expected interest rate hikes.
- Supply-led improvements in business parks, hotel, and residential sectors are attracting attention.
- Key recommendations include:
  - Buy: Ascendas REIT (AREIT), CapitaCom Trust (CCT), Frasers HTrust (FHT), Frasers L&I Trust (FLT), CapitaLand (CAPL SP), Wing Tai (WINGT SP)
  - Hold: Ascott REIT (ART SP), Kep REIT (KREIT SP), Mapletree Land (MINT SP), PLife REIT (PREIT SP), Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT SP)
  - Sell: Wharf Holdings Ltd (4 HK)
- The document highlights the potential for a fundamental shift in 2018, with a focus on deep value and diversification strategies.
Hong Kong Property (MARKET WEIGHT):
- Clients are looking for potential beneficiaries of agricultural landbank conversions.
- Policy clarity is awaited, but the focus remains on long-term fundamentals.
- Key recommendations include:
  - Buy: New World Development (17 HK), Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK)
  - Hold: Cheung Kong Property (1113 HK), City Developments (CIT SP), GLP (GLP SP), Ho Bee Land (HOBEE SP)
  - Sell: Wharf Holdings Ltd (4 HK)
- Rental trends are diverging, with upward pressure in the Central Business District (CBD) and downward pressure in peripheral areas.

Alibaba Group (BABA US)

Investor Day Highlights:
- Alibaba raised its FY18 revenue growth guidance to 45–49% yoy, exceeding previous estimates.
- The company reaffirmed its target of achieving US$1t GMV by FY20 and serving 2b customers by FY36.
- The CFO emphasized that the company will reinvest a portion of the strong revenue into user acquisition and content investment.
Key Financials (Rmbm):
- Net turnover: 101,143 (2016), 158,273 (2017), 231,550 (2018F), 304,413 (2019F), 387,363 (2020F)
- EBITDA: 35,803 (2016), 59,980 (2017), 89,097 (2018F), 117,016 (2019F), 151,413 (2020F)
- Operating profit: 29,102 (2016), 48,055 (2017), 66,679 (2018F), 101,493 (2019F), 132,278 (2020F)
- EPS (fen): 1,745.8 (2016), 2,422.9 (2017), 3,387.4 (2018F), 4,635.7 (2019F), 5,838.8 (2020F)
- Target Price: US$173.00 (from US$139.44)
- Upside: +24.1%
New Metrics and Take Rate:
- The company redefined its "take rate" as a new metric for measuring revenue from marketing services.
- Alibaba introduced a new platform called "Uni-marketing" to enhance merchant ROI through improved consumer targeting and marketing efficiency.

Market Indices Performance

DJIA: Prev Close: 21235.7, 1D: -0.2%, 1W: -0.2%, 1M: +1.6%, YTD: +7.5%
S&P 500: Prev Close: 2429.4, 1D: -0.1%, 1W: -0.3%, 1M: +1.6%, YTD: +8.5%
FTSE 100: Prev Close: 7511.9, 1D: -0.2%, 1W: -0.2%, 1M: +1.0%, YTD: +5.2%
AS30: Prev Close: 5715.5, 1D: 0.0%, 1W: -1.8%, 1M: -2.6%, YTD: -0.1%
CSI 300: Prev Close: 3574.4, 1D: -0.0%, 1W: +3.0%, 1M: +5.6%, YTD: +8.0%
FSSTI: Prev Close: 3248.3, 1D: -0.2%, 1W: +0.3%, 1M: -0.2%, YTD: +12.8%
HSCEI: Prev Close: 10485.9, 1D: -1.0%, 1W: -1.0%, 1M: +2.0%, YTD: +11.6%
HSI: Prev Close: 25708.0, 1D: -1.2%, 1W: -0.6%, 1M: +2.2%, YTD: +16.9%
JCI: Prev Close: 5691.4, 1D: +0.3%, 1W: -1.0%, 1M: +0.3%, YTD: +7.5%
KLCI: Prev Close: 1788.9, 1D: +0.2%, 1W: +0.7%, 1M: +0.7%, YTD: +9.0%
KOSPI: Prev Close: 2357.9, 1D: -1.0%, 1W: -0.6%, 1M: +3.1%, YTD: +16.4%
Nikkei 225: Prev Close: 19908.6, 1D: -0.5%, 1W: -1.3%, 1M: +0.1%, YTD: +4.2%
SET: Prev Close: 1563.8, 1D: -0.2%, 1W: -0.2%, 1M: +1.3%, YTD: +1.4%
TWSE: Prev Close: 10110.0, 1D: -0.9%, 1W: -1.1%, 1M: +1.2%, YTD: +9.3%
BDI: Prev Close: 870, 1D: +2.5%, 1W: +6.0%, 1M: -14.2%, YTD: -9.5%
CPO (RM/mt): Prev Close: 2694, 1D: -1.6%, 1W: -2.7%, 1M: -2.8%, YTD: -15.8%
Brent Crude (US$/bbl): Prev Close: 48, 1D: +0.3%, 1W: -2.4%, 1M: -5.0%, YTD: -15.0%

Key Assumptions

GDP Growth (yoy):
- US: 1.6 (2016), 2.7 (2017F), 2.5 (2018F)
- Euro Zone: 1.7 (2016), 1.6 (2017F), 1.5 (2018F)
- Japan: 1.0 (2016), 0.9 (2017F), 1.2 (2018F)
- Singapore: 2.0 (2016), 2.4 (2017F), 2.8 (2018F)
- Malaysia: 4.2 (2016), 4.5 (2017F), 4.7 (2018F)
- Thailand: 3.2 (2016), 3.3 (2017F), 3.1 (2018F)
- Indonesia: 5.0 (2016), 5.2 (2017F), 5.5 (2018F)
- Hong Kong: 1.9 (2016), 2.0 (2017F), 2.0 (2018F)
- China: 6.7 (2016), 6.3 (2017F), 6.3 (2018F)
Brent Crude (US$/bbl): 45 (2016), 55 (2017F), 60 (2018F)
CPO (RM/mt): 2,653 (2016), 2,600 (2017F), 2,500 (2018F)

Corporate Events

Site visit to Auto Sector Companies: Zhengtong Auto Services Holding, Yongda Automobile Services Holding (13 Jun)
Roadshow with PT Siloam Int'l Hospital: Canada/US (5 Jun – 16 Jun)
Analyst Presentation on Spore Strategy: Kuala Lumpur (15 Jun – 16 Jun)
Luncheon with Loob Holdings: Kuala Lumpur (20 Jun)
Luncheon with United Overseas Bank: Singapore (3 Jul)
Site Visit to Sarawak Oil Palms Bhd: Sarawak (3 Jul – 5 Jul)
New Economy Conference 2017: Kuala Lumpur (11 Jul)
Roadshow with Citic Envirotech Ltd: Taipei (18 Jul – 19 Jul)
Analyst Marketing on Singapore Strategy & Small & Mid Caps: Taipei (20 Jul – 21 Jul)
Roadshow with Top Glove Corporation: US/Canada (5 Sep – 12 Sep)

Key Information

Alibaba Group is positioned as a top recommendation with a strong revenue growth outlook and new marketing platforms.
Singapore Property & REITs are highlighted as OVERWEIGHT due to supply-led improvements and long-term growth potential.
Hong Kong Property is considered MARKET WEIGHT, with a focus on landbank conversions and policy clarity.
The document suggests that interest rate hikes are likely to be slower than anticipated, which is positive for property and REITs.
Key sectors include e-commerce, real estate, and industrial REITs.
Corporate events provide opportunities for investor engagement and market analysis.

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