20150715-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_12页_927kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - July 15, 2015

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the Philippine stock market and financial insights for various sectors, focusing on the telecommunications and banking industries, as well as utilities and conglomerates. It includes key financial metrics, analyst ratings, and market updates for the week ahead.

Key Financial Data (July 14, 2015)

Index	Value	% Change
PSEi	7,538.76	0.57
Turnover (PHPm)	5,728.73	20.23
PLDT ADR (USD)	63.45	-0.08
PLDT ADR (PHP)	2,867.62	-0.00
Ave interbank rate	2.53	0 bps
PHP/USD rate	45.21	-0.12

Analysts

Luz Lorenzo
- Email: luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com
- Phone: (632) 849 8836
Ramon Adviento
- Email: ramon_adviento@maybank-atrke.com
- Phone: (63) 28498845
Michael Bengson
- Email: michael_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
- Phone: (63) 28498840
Rommel Rodrigo
- Email: rommel_rodrigo@maybank-atrke.com
- Phone: (632) 849 8839
Lovell Sarreal
- Email: lovell_sarreal@maybank-atrke.com
- Phone: (632) 849 8841
Katherine Tan
- Email: kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com
- Phone: (632) 849 8843 |

Top Idea: GLO (PHP2,780.00)

Upgrade to BUY from HOLD.
Upside: 13%.
Reasons:
- Raised forecasts for 2015 net income by 4% and 2016-17 by 10%.
- Increased mobile prepaid subscriber forecasts by 3% and mobile blended ARPU by 1%.
- Raised DCF-based target price by 18% to PHP2,780.
- Acquisition of Bayantel, which is expected to be marginally EBITDA-accretive and enhance GLO's broadband and fixed-line business.
- Strong performance in 1Q15 with core earnings up 25% YoY and revenue up 13% YoY.
- Smartphone penetration in GLO's network is ~35%, with expectations to increase to 50% over time.

Market Talk

Gaming

PAGCOR anticipates USD3m in gaming revenue for the year.
Casino revenue in 1H15 grew 15% YoY to USD1.4b, despite China's anti-corruption measures.
Full-year revenue could reach USD3b, a 20% increase YoY.

Banks

GSIS Family Bank to be sold to Phindep Development Corp for PHP502m, PHP1m above the floor price.
Phindep is a new entity incorporated in March.

Utilities

Manila Electric Co (MER-HOLD) announced a slight reduction in July distribution charges, offsetting a rise in generation charges.
VECO started a pilot program for prepaid electricity in Naga, Cebu, with 100 meters approved and 48 installed.
VECO serves a population of 1.73 million in an area of 674 sq km.

Conglomerates

SMC plans to issue PHP33.5b in Series 2 preferred shares at PHP75/sh.
SMC's subsidiary Vega Telecom is set to acquire the remaining stake in Liberty Telecom Holdings Inc (LIB).
Vega currently holds 49.76% of LIB, with Qtel owning 32.99%.
SMC will conduct a tender offer for LIB common shares.

Forecast Changes Summary

Metric	2015F (PHPm)	2016F (PHPm)	2017F (PHPm)	YoY Growth (%)
Revenue	112,982	121,354	128,157	3.9
EBITDA	45,821	48,851	51,189.7	5.6
Core Net Profit	17,436	19,071	20,033	9.9
Core EPS (PHP)	130.82	143.08	150.30	5.0

Key Assumptions Changes

Category	2015F (PHPm)	Previous (PHPm)	YoY Change (%)
Mobile Revenue	83,140	82,001	1.4
Broadband Revenue	16,017	15,661	2.3
Fixed Line Revenue	9,308	9,144	1.8
Other Revenue	4,517	4,422	2.2

Week Ahead Events

Date	Company	Event
July 15	Easycall Communications Phils., Inc.	Annual Stockholders’ Meeting
July 15	Concepcion Industrial Corporation	Annual Stockholders’ Meeting
July 16	Robinsons’ Retail Holdings, Inc.	Annual Stockholders’ Meeting
July 16	RFM Corporation	Annual Stockholders’ Meeting
July 16	Petroenergy Resources Corporation	Annual Stockholders’ Meeting
July 16	Island Information and Technology, Inc.	Annual Stockholders’ Meeting
July 17	Iripple, Inc.	Annual Stockholders’ Meeting
July 17	Macroasia Corporation	Annual Stockholders’ Meeting

Earnings and Valuations (as of 14 July 2015)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Recommendation	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS (PHP)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
BDO	104.00	123.00	18	BUY	2014	22,466	6.27	0.9	16.6	2.10	2.0	48.56	2.1	13.5	1.3	13.5
BPI	94.50	101.00	7	HOLD	2014	18,039	4.62	-10.9	20.5	0.91	1.0	36.64	2.6	14.0	1.4	14.0
CHIB	45.60	51.00	12	HOLD	2014	5,116	3.08	-5.9	14.8	1.21	2.2	8.13	6.9	89.8	4.1	14.4
EW	20.30	29.00	43	BUY	2014	2,685	16.11	-7.3	11.9	51.60	31.5	116.44	1.4	-4.6	4.6	12.0
BDO	104.00	123.00	18	BUY	2015	25,723	7.18	-10.9	16.6	2.10	2.0	57.75	1.6	-23.4	1.0	9.7
BPI	94.50	101.00	7	HOLD	2015	21,002	5.34	6.4	14.9	0.59	1.1	9.81	5.7	-27.9	1.0	10.5
CHIB	45.60	51.00	12	HOLD	2015	5,589	3.26	5.8	14.0	1.00	2.2	33.46	1.4	-9.4	1.2	10.5
... (continued for other stocks)	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...

Summary

The report highlights GLO as a top idea with an upgrade to BUY due to improved forecasts and the potential of its Bayantel acquisition. It also outlines market developments in gaming, banking, and utilities, emphasizing the growth potential of the digital consumer segment and the impact of regulatory changes on utility pricing. Analysts provide detailed forecasts and valuation metrics for various stocks, offering insights into their performance and future outlook. The document also lists upcoming shareholder meetings for several companies, indicating potential market-moving events.

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