2017年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_the_Republic_of_Cameroon_for_the_Period_FY17-FY21_105页_1mb

Summary of the World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework for the Republic of Cameroon (FY17-FY21)

Core Content

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the Republic of Cameroon, covering the period FY17-FY21, outlines the World Bank Group (WBG) strategy to support the Government of Cameroon (GoC) in achieving inclusive growth, poverty reduction, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It also emphasizes the GoC's commitment to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

The CPF replaces the previous Country Partnership Strategy (FY10-FY13), which was extended until FY14. It is based on the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) from FY16, which identified challenges in achieving the WBG's Twin Goals of eradicating poverty and fostering shared prosperity in a socially and environmentally sustainable manner.

Main Points

1. Country Context and Development Agenda

• Geography and Demographics: Cameroon is a central African country with a population of about 24 million, a 475,000 km² area, and a strategic location on the Gulf of Guinea.
• Economic Structure: The economy is not competitive and little diversified, with crude oil (43%) and unprocessed food (17%) as the top exports.
• Political and Social Factors: Cameroon is politically fragile, with chronic instability in the Far North and East regions, and increasing regional inequalities.
• Youth and Governance: The median age is 18.3 years, and youth unemployment is twice the general rate. Political institutions are described as limited access orders, with strong presidential influence and weak checks and balances.
• Development Strategy: The GoC has adopted the DSCE (Document de Stratégie pour la Croissance et l'Emploi) and the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, as well as the Paris Agreement.

2. Economic Developments and Outlook

• Growth Trends: Growth resumed in the mid-90s, accelerated after the HIPC completion point in 2006, and reached 6% in 2014-2015.
• Macroeconomic Projections:
  • Baseline Scenario: GDP growth is expected to be 4.3% in 2020, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 36%.
  • Reform Scenario: GDP growth remains similar, but fiscal and current account deficits are reduced, leading to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 29.4%.
• Economic Challenges: The country faces debt distress, insecurity, and low economic dynamism. The public debt-to-GDP ratio has increased from 10% in 2008 to 28% in 2015, and is projected to reach 36% by 2020.
• Sectoral Performance:
  • The primary sector contributes only 1% to GDP, with low agricultural productivity.
  • The secondary sector is extractive and light manufacturing, contributing similar levels to the primary sector.
  • The tertiary sector is the largest contributor, but is unsophisticated and reliant on public investment.

3. WBG Partnership Strategy

• The WBG aims to support the GoC in reforming institutions, improving public finance management, and promoting private sector-led growth.
• The CPF includes instruments and financial envelope, procurement and financial management arrangements, and risk management strategies for operating in fragile environments.
• Key Areas of Focus:
  • Private sector development
  • Infrastructure investment
  • Climate change mitigation and adaptation
  • Humanitarian and economic support for refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs)
• Reforms in Energy and Health Sectors:
  • Energy sector: Regulatory reforms, private sector concessions, and the development of hydropower and gas plants have improved electricity access.
  • Health sector: Performance-based financing (PBF) has been introduced and is being scaled up nationally with support from the Global Financing Facility (GFF).

Key Information

• Currency: CFA franc (FCFA), with US$1 = 622 FCFA.
• Government Fiscal Year: January 1 - December 31.
• Key Institutions:
  • IDA (International Development Association): Focuses on poverty reduction and public finance management.
  • IFC (International Finance Corporation): Supports private sector development.
  • MIGA (Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency): Provides investment guarantees.
• Fragility and Conflict:
  • Northern and Eastern regions are chronically fragile.
  • Boko Haram attacks have led to displacement, violence, and economic disruption.
  • Refugee inflows from Nigeria and CAR have increased humanitarian challenges.
• Key Projects:
  • Kribi Power Development Company (KPDC): Developed a 216 MW gas power plant.
  • Lom Pangar Hydropower Plant (LPHP): A 120 MW dam that increased hydropower capacity on the Sanaga River.
  • Nachtigal Hydro Plant: Expected to increase capacity by 420 MW.
• Risk Management:
  • The CPF includes strategies for managing debt distress, insecurity, and fragile environments.
  • Fiscal adjustment, budget consolidation, and improving public expenditure management are necessary for economic stability.

Conclusion

The CPF outlines a strategic partnership between the WBG and the GoC to address economic and social challenges, promote private sector growth, and support climate resilience. It acknowledges the complex political and social environment, and emphasizes the need for institutional reform, better governance, and economic diversification. The WBG's role includes technical assistance, investment, and risk management to ensure sustainable development and inclusive growth in Cameroon.