2025-06-07-花旗集团-比亚迪（1211）_比亚迪（1211.HK）_库存与风险更新（2025年5月-_12月）；维持买入评级及原因_16页_1mb

报告摘要

Inventory Levels: End-May 2025 China domestic inventory estimated at 609k units (2.12 months). Projections show inventory decreasing sequentially to 1.56 months by December 2025, assuming total wholesale volumes reach 5.5 million units for FY25.
Sales Projections:
- 2Q25 domestic retail volume: 304k units (76k per week).
- Achieving 25% QoQ growth in Q2-3-4 2025 to meet consensus wholesale expectations.
Export Projections: Exports expected to decrease QoQ (287k units in May, then 270k/270k in Jun-Jul/Aug), with negligible contribution by the year-end.
PEG Valuation: 0.8x 2025E PEG applied to +43% NP CAGR (2025-27), deriving a target price of HK$727 (HK market) and Rmb669 (Shenzhen). Valuation reflects expected strong growth momentum.
Key Factors:
- Higher growth projections than some market sources due to improving operating leverage.
- Inventory management enabling potential profit recovery.
Downside Risks:
1. Weaker NEV/PV sales.
2. Delayed Skyrail business ramp-up.
3. Unexpected cash flow issues or prolonged CAPEX cycles.