2025-06-07-花旗集团-丰树物流信托（MAPL）_丰树物流信托（MAPL.SI）_模型更新_12页_450kb

报告摘要

Model Update: Citigroup downgraded FY26E/FY27E DPU by 9.5%/9.8% to 7.49/7.65 Scts due to removal of divestment gains, lower NPI margins, higher debt costs, and slower passing rent growth in select regions.
Valuation and Target: Lowered target price to S$1.36 (13% reduction) from previous, based on DDM and RNAV assumptions (risk-free rate 3.5%, cost of equity 7.9%, terminal growth 2.0%), implying a 3-yr forward CAGR of -1% and ~29% total return.
Rating: Buy rating maintained based on target price outlook despite downgrade.
Risks: Downside risks include sharp decline in APAC trade/economic activity and rise in interest rates, potentially reducing occupancy, rents, and DPU. Upside risks include rapid APAC recovery, lower financing costs, and earnings from unannounced acquisitions.
Growth and Financials: Projected stable DPU by FY28E at 7.80 Scts, with EPS-adjusted growth averaging -10.5% to +1.9% across years. Key metrics include dividend yield of 6.7%, P/E ratios ranging from 12.3x to 30.4x, and net debt-to-equity of 72.7%.

Earnings: Dropped from S$0.09 in 2024A to S$0.08 in 2025A, with EPS-adjusted growth negative in early years before stabilizing.
Dividends: DPS reduced from S$0.09 to S$0.07 in 2026E, with expected dividend yield around 6.7-7.0%.
Balance Sheet: Net debt high at 66.1-72.7% of equity; NOI growth mixed, with slow expansion in some geographies.

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