2025-06-13-花旗集团-比亚迪（1211）_比亚迪（1211.HK）模型更新_12页_576kb

Citigroup updates its Buy recommendation for BYD (1211.HK) due to a recent share placement and stock split, reducing the target price from HK$242.33 to HK$233 per share. Key financial metrics include adjusted 2025-2027E earnings per share (EPS) of Rmb6.199 to Rmb12.718, with an expected market cap of HK$738,483 million and a 12-month target price. The firm expects a 73.4% expected return, a 1.5% dividend yield, and robust growth in net profit, driven by strong new energy vehicle (NEV) and power vehicle sales in China, aligning with growth projections up to 26% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Valuation is based on a PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) model, with a 70% upside hinge on achieving 43% sales growth.

Risks include weaker-than-expected NEV/PV sales, slower Skyrail business ramp-up, prolonged capital expenditure cycles, or unexpected cash flow issues. The company maintains strong financial indicators, with Gross Margin above 19% and Net Interest rising modestly, but dividend payout could reduce in later years.

This analysis reflects current market conditions and growth expectations, with BYD considered a high-growth stock suitable for investors seeking capital appreciation amidst regulatory and market uncertainties. Source: Citigroup Research data.