2025-06-10-花旗集团-深圳机场（000089）_深圳机场（000089.SZ）模型更新_12页_453kb

报告摘要

Citigroup Research updates its model for Shenzhen Airport following 2024 and 1Q25 performance.
Domestic traffic recovered strongly in 2024 (120% of 2019 levels), with total passenger throughput exceeding expectations at 61.5 million.
Revenue growth driven by 9% YoY ATM and 17% YoY passenger growth; aero revenue increased 16% YoY.
Non-aero segment saw mild growth, with logistics highlighted by 31% YoY due to cross-border e-commerce.
1Q25 traffic normalized, with cargo (especially international) growth steady at 25% YoY.
Earnings estimates for 2025-2026 are revised up by 4% and 3%, respectively.
Neutral recommendation based on satellite terminal ramp-up, cost management, and favorable traffic growth, lessening the international/d domestic mix disadvantage compared to peers.

Historical & Projected Earnings: Net profit rose from Rmb397M in 2023 to Rmb443M in 2024, projected to Rmb641M by 2025E (44.7% YoY growth).
Revenue Growth: Sales revenue increased 55.9% YoY in 2023 to Rmb4,165M, with ongoing growth at 13.8% and 7% for 2024-2025E.
Valuation Ratios: Current P/E at 32.6x (down from 36.4x in 2023), P/B at 1.3x; target price Rmb7.700 (up from Rmb7.050), reflecting DCF model with 7.0% WACC and 1.5% terminal growth.

Target Price: Rmb7.700 based on DCF analysis, capturing long-term growth potential.
Growth Projections: 2025E earnings per share (EPS) at Rmb0.313, with 23.8% YoY EPS growth; dividends expected at Rmb0.175 (2.5% yield).

Key Risks: Traffic growth (better/worse than expected), duty-free spending, D&A from satellite terminals.
Recommendation: Neutral stance due to traffic growth, cost management, but weighed by less favorable market mix and peer comparisons.

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