20150218-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_26页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 18 February 2015
Core Content Overview
This document provides a summary of stock market updates and analysis for various regions, including China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, along with key financial metrics and recommendations for specific companies. It also includes key indices, corporate events, and valuation insights.
Main Points by Region
China
- Xinchen China Power (1148 HK):
- Agreed to acquire a crankshaft production line from BMW Brilliance for Rmb391m.
- The line has an annual capacity of 400,000 units and is expected to contribute Rmb40m and Rmb48m in net profit for 2015 and 2016 respectively.
- The acquisition and subsequent investments are expected to be financed by the company's cash reserves and international cash flows.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$4.50.
- Upside: +47.5% from current price of HK$3.05.
Hong Kong
- SmarTone (315 HK):
- Strong 1HFY15 results driven by iPhone 6 sales and service revenue rebound.
- Net profit increased by 49.8% yoy and 106.5% hoh, beating expectations.
- Service revenue rebounded by 4.2% hoh, with a strong increase in handset sales.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$17.25.
- Upside: +32.7% from current price of HK$13.00.
Indonesia
- United Tractors (UNTR IJ):
- Operational performance in 2014 was in line with expectations.
- Recommendation: Maintain HOLD with a target price of Rp19,500.
Malaysia
- Oil & Gas Sector:
- Despite challenges, there are opportunities in the sector.
- Recommendation: Maintain Market Weight.
Singapore
- CapitaLand (CAPL SP):
- On track to achieve ROE target in 4Q14.
- Sembcorp Industries Ltd (SCI SP):
- Solid utilities pipeline in 4Q14.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY.
Thailand
- Bangkok Expressway (BECL TB):
- Impressive results in 4Q14.
- Big C Supercenter PCL (BIGC TB):
- Net profit rose 4% yoy, supported by higher rental income and lower financial charges.
- Recommendation: Maintain HOLD.
Key Indices
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 18047.6 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| S&P 500 | 2100.3 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 2.0 |
| FTSE 100 | 6898.1 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| AS30 | 5822.3 | -0.5 | 1.1 | 10.3 | 8.0 |
| CSI 300 | 3522.3 | 0.7 | 3.4 | -3.1 | -0.3 |
| FSSTI | 3415.9 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| HSCEI | 11998.5 | 0.5 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 0.1 |
| HSI | 24784.9 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 5.0 |
| JCI | 5337.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| KLCI | 1810.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| KOSPI | 1961.5 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 |
| Nikkei 225 | 17987.1 | -0.1 | 1.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 |
| SET | 1587.8 | -1.3 | -0.5 | 4.6 | 6.0 |
| TWSE | 9529.5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 |
| BDI | 516 | -1.1 | -7.2 | -30.4 | -34.0 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2285 | 0.2 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| Nymex Crude | 54 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 9.9 | 0.5 |
Top Picks
BUY Recommendations
- Sunac China (1918 HK): Target price HK$9.29, upside +35.6%
- ICBC (1398 HK): Target price HK$6.90, upside +21.5%
- Bank Mandiri (BMRI J): Target price Rp12,500, upside +6.8%
- Ijm Corp (IJM MK): Target price MK$7.60, upside +8.6%
- DBS (DBS SP): Target price SP$23.55, upside +21.5%
- Pacific Radiance (PACRA SP): Target price SP$1.00, upside +33.3%
- Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB): Target price TB$29.00, upside +26.6%
- Sino Thai Engr (STEC TB): Target price TB$30.25, upside +21.0%
SELL Recommendation
- UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Target price MK$10.00, downside -8.9%
Key Assumptions
| Metric | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (% yoy) | - | - | - |
| US | 1.9 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| Euro Zone | -0.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Japan | 1.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Singapore | 4.4 | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Malaysia | 4.7 | 6.0 | 4.7 |
| Thailand | 2.9 | 0.7 | 4.0 |
| Indonesia | 5.8 | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| Hong Kong | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| China | 7.7 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| Brent (US$/bbl) | 99.45 | 65 | 70 |
| CPO (US$/mt) | 722 | 765 | 788 |
| BDI | 1,101 | 1,300 | 1,400 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Dates |
|---|---|---|
| PTT Global Chemical Roadshow | Kuala Lumpur | 23 Feb - 24 Feb |
| Plantation Outlook Seminar 2015 | Kuala Lumpur | 2 Mar |
| First Resources Luncheon | Kuala Lumpur | 4 Mar |
| CIFI Holdings Roadshow | Singapore | 16 Mar |
| ASEAN Conference | Taipei | 17 Mar - 18 Mar |
Company Update - Xinchen China Power
- Acquired a crankshaft production line from BMW Brilliance for Rmb391m.
- Annual capacity of 400,000 units, expected to generate Rmb40m and Rmb48m in net profit for 2015 and 2016.
- The acquisition is part of Brilliance's plan to streamline its auto parts business.
- Capital expenditures for 2015-2017 are Rmb424m, Rmb145m, and Rmb122m respectively.
- Expected to be financed by cash balance and international cash flows.
Company Results - SmarTone
- 1HFY15 net profit increased by 49.8% yoy and 106.5% hoh, beating expectations.
- Service revenue rebounded by 4.2% hoh, supported by tariff hikes and increased handset sales.
- Handset sales increased by 58.4% yoy and 45.3% hoh due to iPhone 6 launch.
- Blended ARPU increased by 5.8% hoh despite some dilution from SIM-only plans.
- Management expects FY15 capex to be HK$800m, lower than previous HK$850m guidance.
- Recommendation: Maintain BUY with updated target price of HK$17.25.
Stock Impact
- Xinchen: Expected to generate Rmb40m-50m in profit in 2015-16, representing 11% of group net profit.
- SmarTone: Expected to see continued earnings improvement due to service revenue recovery and higher ARPU from handset-bundled users.
Valuation & Dividend
- Xinchen currently trades at 9x 2015F PE, close to its historical range.
- SmarTone's dividend yield is expected to increase to 70% or more due to improved free cash flow and sufficient cash balance.
Conclusion
The document highlights positive developments in key markets and companies, particularly in China and Hong Kong, where Xinchen China Power and SmarTone are expected to benefit from new investments and strong earnings performance. It also notes opportunities in the Malaysian Oil & Gas sector and provides key indices and corporate events for further reference. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with BUY recommendations for several companies and HOLD for others.
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