未来可再生能源成本：太阳能光热发电（英文版）_88页-3mb

Summary of Future Renewable Energy Costs: Solar-Thermal Electricity

Core Content

This report by KIC InnoEnergy evaluates the potential cost reductions for solar-thermal electricity (STE) technologies in Europe over the next 12 to 15 years, focusing on how technological innovations can impact the levelised cost of energy (LCOE). The study is based on a consistent and robust methodology, using baseline data for three types of STE technologies: parabolic trough collector (PTC), central receiver (CR), and linear Fresnel reflector (LFR). The analysis considers innovations in design, manufacturing, operations, and maintenance, and how they contribute to LCOE reductions.

Main Technologies and Their Anticipated LCOE Reductions

• Parabolic Trough Collector (PTC):

  • Anticipated LCOE reduction: 28.7%
  • Capacity factor: 27.4%
  • Key drivers: Improvements in component manufacturing, software models, and efficiency gains.

• Central Receiver (CR):

  • Anticipated LCOE reduction: 27.0%
  • Capacity factor: 26.3%
  • Key drivers: Component manufacturing improvements, software, and thermal storage advancements.

• Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR):

  • Anticipated LCOE reduction: 23.6%
  • Capacity factor: 18.8%
  • Key drivers: Lower CAPEX, direct steam generation (DSG), and optimisation of operations and maintenance (OMS).

Key Innovations and Their Contributions

1. Plant Development

• Innovations in design, consenting, contracting, and project management contribute to an anticipated 4.6% LCOE reduction.

2. Concentrators and Receivers

• Innovations in concentrators and receivers are expected to reduce LCOE by 7.1%.
• Solar concentrator design improvements account for 4.5% of this reduction.
• High-temperature receivers and better concentrator efficiency are also key.

3. Heat Transfer Fluids (HTF) and Thermal Energy Storage (TES)

• HTF and TES improvements are expected to reduce LCOE by 2.3% (CR) to 5.6% (PTC).
• The use of new working fluids and cost reductions in storage systems are major factors.

4. Balance of Plant (BoP)

• Innovations in BoP are anticipated to reduce LCOE by 1.4% to 2.0%.
• Some innovations may increase LCOE, such as dry-cooling systems, which are accepted due to their benefits in reducing water consumption.

5. Construction

• Innovations in construction are expected to reduce LCOE by 8.5%.
• This is mainly driven by improvements in manufacturing processes and commissioning.

6. Operations, Maintenance, and Service (OMS)

• Innovations in OMS can reduce LCOE by 3.1%.
• Efficient plant monitoring and predictive models for component degradation are key.
• Cost-effective sun-tracking and cleaning systems also contribute.

Overall LCOE Reductions

• CAPEX reductions: Between 8% (LFR) and 15% (PTC)
• OPEX reductions: Between 5% (LFR) and 12% (CR)
• AEP increases: Between 20% (CR and PTC) and 22% (LFR)
• Total LCOE reduction: At least 23.6% for all technologies, with PTC showing the highest potential.

Technology-Specific Outlook

• PTC: Highest potential for LCOE reduction, with a projected 28.7% saving.
• CR: Already had lower LCOE in 2014, and is expected to remain competitive in 2025.
• LFR: Lower CAPEX than PTC, but lower efficiency leads to higher LCOE. It may become competitive with PTC in the future through efficiency improvements.

Uncertainties and Future Opportunities

• Some innovations are not yet modelled or have minimal impact on projects reaching FID in 2025.
• Innovations such as coupling with solar desalination and thermochemical reactions in CR plants offer further potential for cost reductions and new applications.
• The study suggests that there are significant cost reduction opportunities beyond 2025, especially with continued innovation and market growth.

Methodology Overview

• The model uses a baseline of 100MW STE plants in Spain with a DNI of 2,050 kWh/m²/year.
• It applies a generic WACC to compare technical innovations across scenarios.
• The anticipated impact of each innovation is moderated by real-world factors, including market share, commercial readiness, and other effects like transmission and decommissioning.

Conclusion

• The study concludes that technological innovation will significantly reduce the LCOE of STE plants over the next 12 to 15 years.
• The largest reductions are expected from component manufacturing, software, and efficiency improvements.
• LFR, despite its lower efficiency, has the potential to become competitive with PTC in the future due to its lower CAPEX and ongoing innovations.

Key Authors and Contributors

• Eduardo Zarza – Head of R+D Unit - Solar Concentrating Systems, PSA-Ciemat
• Emilien Simonot, Antoni Martínez, Thomas Winkler – KIC InnoEnergy
• Carlos-David Pérez-Segarra, Luis Crespo Estela, Marcelino Sanchez, Robert Pitz-Paal – Contributing authors

About KIC InnoEnergy

• A European Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC) under the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT).
• Aims to promote innovation, entrepreneurship, and education in the sustainable energy sector.
• Has 28 shareholders and over 150 partners, forming a dynamic network.
• Follows a "not for dividend" strategy, reinvesting profits into activities.
• Headquarters in the Netherlands, with offices in multiple European countries.