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Summary of Future Renewable Energy Costs: Solar-Thermal Electricity

Core Content

This report by KIC InnoEnergy explores how technology innovation is expected to reduce the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) for solar-thermal electricity (STE) plants in Europe over the next 12 to 15 years. It focuses on three main technology types: parabolic trough collector (PTC), central receiver (CR), and linear Fresnel reflector (LFR), each with specific baseline parameters and innovations that contribute to cost reduction.

Main Views

• Technology Innovation Focus: The report models the impact of various technical innovations on the LCOE of STE plants, excluding supply chain, financing, and other external effects.
• Credibility and Methodology: A consistent and robust methodology is used, based on the KIC InnoEnergy technology strategy and roadmap work stream from 2014, extended to a 12–15 year horizon.
• Cost Reduction Expectations: The study predicts LCOE reductions for all three technology types, with PTC expected to achieve the largest reduction of 28.7%, followed by CR (27.0%) and LFR (23.6%).
• Key Drivers of Cost Reduction: Innovations in component manufacturing, heat transfer fluids (HTF), thermal energy storage (TES), balance of plant (BoP), construction, and operations, maintenance, and service (OMS) are identified as major contributors to LCOE reduction.
• Plant Parameters and Assumptions: All plants are assumed to have a 25-year lifetime, with a baseline of 100MW capacity in Spain for PTC and CR, and a DNI of 2,050 kWh/m². LFR is assumed to operate without thermal storage and has a lower capacity factor of 18.8%.
• Innovation Impact on LCOE: The cumulative impact of innovations is expected to reduce LCOE by 23.6% to 28.7% depending on the technology type. A large portion of this reduction is attributed to improvements in annual energy production (AEP), capital expenditure (CAPEX), and operational expenditure (OPEX).

Key Innovations and Their Impact

1. Plant Development Innovations

• Impact: Anticipated reduction in LCOE of at least 4.6%.
• Drivers: Improvements in design, consenting, contracting, and project management. Efficient dry-cooling systems can increase LCOE but are tolerated due to their benefits in water-scarce regions.

2. Concentrators and Receivers

• Impact: Anticipated reduction in LCOE of at least 7.1%.
• Drivers: Enhanced solar concentrator design, high-temperature receivers, and improved efficiency of both concentrators and receivers. Durability in harsh environments is also crucial.

3. Heat Transfer Fluids (HTF) and Thermal Energy Storage (TES)

• Impact: LCOE reduction ranges from 2.3% (CR) to 5.6% (PTC).
• Drivers: Use of improved HTFs and cost reductions in TES systems. Direct steam generation (DSG) is expected to reduce LCOE by 3.1% for LFR.

4. Balance of Plant (BoP) Innovations

• Impact: LCOE reduction between 1.4% and 2%.
• Drivers: New thermodynamic cycles and improved thermodynamic efficiency. Some innovations may increase LCOE, such as advanced cooling systems, but are considered beneficial for long-term sustainability.

5. Construction Innovations

• Impact: Anticipated reduction in LCOE of at least 8.5%.
• Drivers: Improvements in manufacturing processes and optimisation of the commissioning phase. These innovations contribute significantly to CAPEX reduction.

6. Operations, Maintenance, and Service (OMS) Innovations

• Impact: Anticipated reduction in LCOE of 3.1%.
• Drivers: Efficient plant monitoring systems, predictive models for component degradation, and cost-effective cleaning and tracking systems. These innovations lower OPEX and increase AEP.

Cost Reduction Projections

• CAPEX Reduction: Expected to range from 8% (LFR) to 15% (PTC).
• OPEX Reduction: Expected to range from 5% (LFR) to 12% (CR).
• AEP Increase: Anticipated to increase by 20–22% for PTC and CR, and 22% for LFR.

Technology Comparison

• PTC: Highest potential for cost reduction due to extensive innovation opportunities. Expected to be the most cost-effective in 2025.
• CR: Already had lower LCOE in 2014 and is predicted to remain cheaper in 2025 due to continued efficiency improvements.
• LFR: Lower CAPEX than PTC but lower efficiency leads to higher LCOE. It has potential to become competitive with efficiency improvements.

Additional Innovations and Opportunities

• Unmodelled Innovations: Include solar desalination coupling and thermochemical reactions for hydrogen production, which could further reduce costs and environmental impact by 2030 and beyond.
• Realistic LCOE Calculation: Includes real-world effects such as transmission fees, supply chain dynamics, WACC, insurance, and decommissioning costs.

Conclusion

The report highlights that technology innovation is a key driver in reducing the LCOE of STE plants in Europe. While PTC is expected to lead in cost reduction, CR is projected to remain competitive, and LFR has the potential to become more cost-effective with efficiency improvements. The study provides a comprehensive view of how innovations across various plant components can contribute to lower energy costs, with the overall LCOE reductions aligning with industry expectations.