未来可再生能源成本：太阳能光热发电（英文）_88页-3mb

Summary of Future Renewable Energy Costs: Solar-Thermal Electricity

Core Content

This report from KIC InnoEnergy explores the anticipated reduction in the levelised cost of energy (LCOE) for solar-thermal electricity (STE) plants in Europe over the next 12 to 15 years. It uses a consistent and robust methodology to model the impact of various technology innovations on the LCOE for three main STE technologies: parabolic trough collector (PTC), central receiver (CR), and linear Fresnel reflector (LFR). The study focuses on innovations that affect capital expenditure (CAPEX), operational expenditure (OPEX), and annual energy production (AEP), and considers real-world factors such as supply chain dynamics, transmission, decommissioning, and financing.

The report is structured to provide a detailed breakdown of how innovations in different aspects of STE plant development, such as design, construction, operations, and maintenance, contribute to LCOE reductions. It also highlights the importance of a "not for dividend" financial strategy, reinvesting profits into innovation and development to drive long-term sustainability in the renewable energy sector.

Main Points

1. Technology Types and LCOE Reductions

• Parabolic Trough Collector (PTC):

  • Anticipated LCOE reduction: 28.7%
  • Capacity factor: 27.4%
  • The largest LCOE reduction is attributed to improvements in annual energy production and capital expenditure.

• Central Receiver (CR):

  • Anticipated LCOE reduction: 27.0%
  • Capacity factor: 26.3%
  • Significant contributions come from improvements in solar concentrator design and thermal storage solutions.

• Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR):

  • Anticipated LCOE reduction: 23.6%
  • Capacity factor: 18.8%
  • Lower CAPEX compared to PTC, but lower efficiency and higher OMS costs make it less competitive currently.

2. Innovation Categories and Contributions

• Technology Innovation Modelling:

  • The study evaluates the impact of innovations on various STE elements such as plant design, solar field, receiver and heat transfer system, and thermal storage system.
  • Innovations are categorized into CAPEX, OPEX, and AEP impacts, with a focus on reducing LCOE.

• Software and Process Innovations:

  • Software improvements in plant design and monitoring are expected to reduce LCOE by 4.6%.
  • Efficient dry-cooling systems and predictive models for component degradation are key OMS innovations.

• Concentrators and Receivers:

  • Innovations in this area are expected to reduce LCOE by 7.1%, with 4.5% coming from solar concentrator design improvements.
  • High-temperature receivers and more efficient concentrators are also expected to contribute to cost reductions.

• Heat Transfer Fluids (HTF) and Thermal Energy Storage (TES):

  • HTF and TES improvements are expected to reduce LCOE by 2.3% to 5.6%, depending on the Technology Type.
  • Direct steam generation (DSG) is expected to play a significant role in LFR technology, reducing LCOE by 3.1%.

• Balance of Plant (BoP):

  • BoP innovations are expected to reduce LCOE by 1.4% to 2.0%, with some innovations potentially increasing LCOE.
  • The impact is controversial due to the mix of cost increases and decreases.

• Construction Innovations:

  • Innovations in manufacturing and construction processes are expected to reduce LCOE by 8.5%, with 4% coming from CAPEX improvements and 4.5% from commissioning process optimisation.

• Operations, Maintenance, and Service (OMS):

  • OMS innovations can reduce LCOE by 3.1%, with half of this attributed to efficient plant monitoring.
  • Predictive maintenance models and cost-efficient sun-tracking systems are also expected to contribute.

3. Overall LCOE Reductions

• The overall LCOE reductions across all Technology Types are expected to be at least 23.6%.
• The largest reductions are expected in CAPEX (8% for LFR, 15% for PTC), OMS (5% for LFR, 12% for CR), and AEP (20–22% for all types).
• While PTC has the highest potential for innovation, CR is already more cost-effective and is expected to remain so in 2025.
• LFR is expected to become more competitive in the future due to its lower CAPEX and potential for efficiency improvements.

4. Methodology Overview

• The model is based on baseline parameters for a 100MW plant in Spain with a DNI of 2,050 kWh/m²/year.
• The study includes a range of innovations, with seven innovations contributing over 50% of the total LCOE reduction.
• The methodology involves a four-stage process to moderate the maximum technical impact of each innovation into an anticipated market impact, considering real-world factors such as market readiness, supply chain effects, and risk.

5. Other Effects Considered

• The real-world LCOE includes adjustments for:
  • Scenario-specific WACC (weighted average cost of capital)
  • Transmission fees
  • Supply chain dynamics (e.g., economies of scale, competition)
  • Insurance and contingency costs
  • Decommissioning costs
• These effects are modelled separately and applied to the technology-only LCOE to provide a more accurate cost projection.

Key Information

• Baseline Parameters:

  • PTC and CR plants include 1GWh thermal storage.
  • LFR plants do not include thermal storage.
  • All plants are assumed to have a 25-year lifespan for LCOE calculation.

• Innovation Scope:

  • A total of 19–24 innovations are considered for each Technology Type.
  • Some innovations are not yet modelled due to limited market impact or lack of reference plants.

• Future Outlook:

  • The report anticipates significant cost reductions by 2025, with further opportunities for cost savings expected by 2030.
  • LFR is expected to become a more competitive alternative to PTC in the future due to potential efficiency improvements.
  • The study provides a framework for understanding how innovation pathways can influence the competitiveness of STE technologies in Europe.

Conclusion

KIC InnoEnergy’s report outlines a comprehensive and realistic approach to forecasting the future cost of solar-thermal electricity through the lens of technological innovation. By identifying and quantifying the impact of various innovations across CAPEX, OPEX, and AEP, the study offers a valuable insight into the potential for cost reductions in the STE sector over the next 12 to 15 years. The methodology ensures that the results are credible and aligned with industry expectations, making this a useful tool for investors, policymakers, and industry stakeholders in the renewable energy field.