人民币国际化_我们在哪里_我们能做什么_（英文版）_18页_443kb

RMB Internationalisation: Where We Are and What We Can Expect in 2018

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the state of RMB internationalisation as of 2017, highlighting progress, challenges, and future expectations. It includes data and analysis from SWIFT, as well as insights from various financial institutions and reports.

Main Points

1. RMB Internationalisation Status

• RMB's role as a global currency remains limited, with only 1.61% of international payments in 2017.
• Cross-border payments share is even lower at 0.98%, indicating that the RMB is still not widely used outside of China.
• RMB is the most actively traded emerging market currency, and the eighth most traded globally, but its share in global FX turnover is only 4%.

2. Key Initiatives and Trends Supporting RMB Internationalisation

• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): Launched in 2013, it has expanded to over 100 countries and international organisations. The BRI is seen as a major driver for increasing RMB usage in trade and infrastructure projects.
• Digital Payment Ecosystems: The rise of mobile payment platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay has significantly expanded the use of RMB domestically, with over 520 million users for Alipay and 40% market share for WeChat Pay.
• SWIFT gpi: Over 22 Chinese banks are using SWIFT gpi, which provides faster, more transparent, and fully traceable RMB cross-border payments.
• Bond Connect: Launched in July 2017, this initiative allows international investors to access the Mainland China bond market. As of December 2017, 247 overseas investors from 18 countries were approved, and foreign holdings of CIBM debt securities increased by 36% to RMB 1,147.4 billion.

3. Connectivity and Market Access

• CIPS (Cross-border Interbank Payment System): This system supports RMB payments and is crucial for enhancing connectivity.
• SWIFTRef: Now includes CIPS membership data, improving transparency and access for international investors.
• SWIFT's role: It supports RMB internationalisation through its global messaging network, offering insights and tools to financial institutions.

4. RMB as a Reserve Currency

• IMF SDR basket: The RMB was included in the SDR basket in 2016, but international adoption remains low.
• ECB and Bundesbank: Both have included the RMB in their reserves, though the share is still small (0.7% for ECB, and Germany added it in 2018).
• Challenges: Capital controls, limited foreign ownership of Chinese assets, and low trade invoicing in RMB continue to hinder RMB's status as a reserve currency.

5. Digital Acceleration

• Alipay and WeChat Pay: These platforms have grown rapidly, with Alipay processing nearly US$25.3 billion in transactions on Singles Day 2017.
• SWIFT gpi: Has seen significant growth, with 145 transaction banks signed up and over 8 million payments processed, enhancing RMB cross-border efficiency.

Key Highlights

• Hong Kong remains the largest RMB clearing centre with 75.68% of activity share.
• CNY/USD is the most important RMB currency pair, accounting for 97.08% of RMB trading by value.
• RMB usage in cross-border payments is less than 1%, while USD and EUR dominate with 39.45% and 41.27% respectively.
• 80.47% of payments to China or Hong Kong are in USD, highlighting the dominance of the dollar in international trade.
• Bond Connect has increased foreign investment in Chinese bonds, with a 36% rise in foreign holdings to RMB 1,147.4 billion by the end of 2017.

Looking Ahead to 2018

• BRI projects are expected to drive RMB usage, particularly in infrastructure and trade.
• Commodity trading in RMB is a potential growth area, with examples like oil contracts in Dubai and Hong Kong.
• SWIFT and CIPS collaboration continues to support RMB internationalisation through improved payment systems and transparency.
• Regulatory compliance and global standards remain critical for the RMB's long-term success.

Conclusion

While the RMB has made progress in internationalisation, its usage remains low compared to other global currencies. The combination of digital innovation, BRI projects, and improved cross-border payment systems offers potential for future growth. However, challenges such as capital controls, regulatory uncertainty, and the dominance of the USD in global trade continue to limit its international adoption. SWIFT and other financial institutions are playing a key role in facilitating this process through advanced tools and services.