人民币国际化：我们在哪里，我们能做什么？（英文版）_20页

RMB Internationalisation: Where We Are and What We Can Expect in 2018

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the state of RMB internationalisation as of January 2018, reviewing the progress made in 2017 and projecting potential developments for 2018. It highlights the role of key initiatives, market trends, and financial infrastructure in shaping the RMB's global presence.

Main Points and Key Information

1. RMB Internationalisation Progress in 2017

• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): A major driver of RMB internationalisation, with over 100 countries and international organisations participating. Key projects include the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway, and the Gwadar port in Pakistan.
• Bond Connect: A breakthrough in China's onshore bond market, allowing international investors to access the CIBM. By the end of 2017, 247 overseas investors from 18 countries were approved, and foreign holdings in CIBM increased by 36% to RMB 1,147.4 billion.
• Digital Payment Growth: Mobile payment platforms like Alipay and WeChat Pay are accelerating RMB usage. Alipay had over 520 million users and processed US$25.3 billion in transactions during Singles Day 2017, while WeChat Pay held over 40% market share in China.
• SWIFT gpi: Twenty-two Chinese banks are part of SWIFT gpi, which enhances the speed, transparency, and traceability of RMB payments, making them more competitive in international transactions.

2. RMB Usage in the FX Market

• Activity Share: As of December 2017, the RMB's share in international payments was 1.61%, with only 0.98% in cross-border payments (excluding intra-Eurozone).
• Currency Pairs: The CNY/USD pair dominated RMB trading, accounting for 97.08% of RMB trading by value, with no substantial liquidity in other RMB pairs.
• CLS System: RMB is not settled in the CLS system, but its activity in non-CLS currency pairs remains significant.

3. Hong Kong's Role as an Offshore RMB Centre

• Clearing Hub: Hong Kong remains the largest RMB clearing centre with a 75.68% activity share.
• Market Access: Bond Connect and Stock Connect have strengthened Hong Kong's position as an intermediary for RMB transactions, offering easier access to the Mainland bond market.

4. Challenges and Limitations

• Reserve Currency Status: Despite inclusion in the IMF's SDR basket, the RMB is not widely used as a reserve currency, with the ECB holding only 0.7% of its reserves in RMB.
• Capital Controls: These have limited the RMB's use in international trade and investments, contributing to its low share in cross-border payments.
• Global Dollar Dominance: The U.S. dollar still dominates international payments, with over 80% of transactions involving China or Hong Kong being in USD.

5. 2018 Outlook

• BRI Impact: Continued infrastructure projects under the BRI are expected to boost RMB usage, particularly in commodity trading.
• Commodity Pricing in RMB: China is working on pricing oil contracts in RMB, potentially reducing reliance on USD. This could be a key catalyst for RMB internationalisation.
• SWIFT gpi and Connectivity: The growth of SWIFT gpi and improved connectivity will support faster and more transparent RMB transactions.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: Despite these opportunities, the future of RMB internationalisation remains uncertain due to ongoing capital controls and regulatory changes.

Summary of RMB Usage in 2017

• Top Offshore Centres: Hong Kong (75.68%), London (5.59%), and others.
• RMB as a Payment Currency: Only 1.61% of global payments were in RMB, with 0.98% in cross-border transactions.
• RMB in FX Market: CNY/USD pair dominates, with 97.08% of RMB trading volume.
• RMB in Cross-Border Payments: Only 80.47% of payments to China or Hong Kong were in RMB, with USD being the dominant currency.
• RMB Trading Locations: The UK (32.99%) and France (9.85%) are the most important trading centres for non-CLS currency pairs, followed by the U.S. and China.

Conclusion

While the RMB has made progress in internationalisation through initiatives like BRI, Bond Connect, and digital payment platforms, it still faces significant challenges, particularly in terms of becoming a major reserve currency and increasing its share in global payments. The document suggests that 2018 could bring opportunities for growth, especially if the RMB is used more widely in commodity trading and if regulatory changes support greater usage. However, the pace of adoption remains slower than expected.