世界银行-中非经货共同体经济晴雨表_2025年6月_第8卷（英）_64页_4mb

CEMAC Economic Barometer Summary June 2025

Economic Overview:

• CEMAC's GDP growth increased to 3.0% in 2024 (up from 2.0% in 2023).
• Forecasts project 2.4% growth for 2025, pressured by declining oil prices, subdued global demand, and a volatile trade environment.

Key Challenges:

1. Poverty and Inequality:

   • Poverty rates remain high, with 32.8% of CEMAC's population (approx. 63.3 million people) living on less than $2.15/day in 2024.
   • Chad (39.4%), CAR (65.3%), and Republic of Congo (46.6%) face the steepest poverty levels.

2. Fiscal and External Vulnerabilities:

   • Fiscal deficits widened from -0.7% in 2023 to -1.5% in 2024 due to lower oil revenues and increased public spending.
   • Public debt is elevated (e.g., Congo: 93.5% of GDP), driven by "brain drain," weak revenue mobilization, and external arrears.

3. External Position:

   • Trade surpluses declined due to falling oil prices and regional maturing oilfields.
   • CEMAC imports reliance on essential goods like food exacerbates vulnerabilities.

4. Structural Weaknesses:

   • Heavy reliance on hydrocarbons and few other commodities (e.g., timber, manganese).
   • High non-hydrocarbon tariffs (avg. 18.3%) hinder trade integration and regional value chains.
   • Limited digital infrastructure, underinvestment in human capital, and bureaucratic hurdles restrict competitiveness.

Macroeconomic Policies:

• Monetary Policy: BEAC eased rates from 5% to 4.5% in 2025, aiming to boost credit access and inflation control.
• Debt Management: Congolese and Gabonian governments restructured debt to mitigate liquidity risks.

Country-Specific Notes:

• Cameroon: Growth 3.5% in 2024 (non-oil sector-driven), but fiscal pressures from elections threatened progress.
• CAR: Fuel supply improvement boosted GDP by 1.5%, but insecurity and donor aid cuts risk reversal.
• Gabon: Growth 2.9% in 2024, supported by oil, manganese, and wood industries, but fiscal deficits and inflation remain risks.
• Chad: Floods and elections impacted growth, with gains concentrated in services and non-oil exports.

Outlook:

• Short-term risks: Global trade tensions, climate shocks, and tighter financing conditions could further constrain regional growth.
• Medium-term: Success hinges on fiscal consolidation, private investment promotion, and structural reforms (e.g., diversification, tax reforms).

Recommendations:

• Strengthen fiscal space through improved tax administration and revenue mobilization.
• Accelerate reforms in CEMAC's Economic and Financial Reform Program (PREF-CEMAC II) to enhance trade and human capital.
• Address external vulnerabilities by diversifying exports, improving regional integration, and mitigating climate impacts.