2025-01-12-世界银行-中非经货共同体经济晴雨表_2024年11月_第7卷（英）_82页_5mb

CEMAC Economic Barometer Analysis: November 2024

Regional Economic Overview

• Growth and Inflation: CEMAC's economy grew by 3.4% in 2024, down from 1.8% in 2023, amid higher oil prices and supply chain improvements. Average inflation decreased to 4.5% in 2024, below the 3.0% convergence criterion, supported by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) monetary policy. However, the region faces high poverty (32%), with one in four youth unemployed, and challenges from low private investment and infrastructure deficits.
• Fiscal Position: Public debt remains elevated (average 1.5% of GDP in 2025-2026), but fiscal balances improved due to revenue enhancements and spending controls. Commodity market exposure limits fiscal space, with risks from oil price volatility and external financing constraints.

Country-Specific Updates

• Cameroon: Growth was 3.7% in 2024, driven by services and agriculture. Poverty increased due to slow income gains; reforms aim for fiscal consolidation, but elections and energy shortages pose risks.
• Central African Republic: Growth hovered around 0.7% in 2024, exacerbated by fuel shortages and conflict; extreme poverty is 65.7%, with high dependence on aid and weak governance.
• Republic of Congo: Growth slowed to an average of 2.1%, with poverty rising to 46.8%; efforts include diversifying from oil, but fiscal surpluses are vulnerable to price drops.
• Chad: Growth was weak at 3.0% in 2024, worsened by floods and refugee crises; youth unemployment remains high at 2.3%, and inflation surged to 6.5%, with fiscal pressures from humanitarian spending.
• Gabon: Growth was 2.4% in 2023 and projected higher in 2024, but poverty levels increased to 35.1%, with challenges in transitioning to sustainable forestry.
• Equatorial Guinea: Growth contracted by 5.7% in 2023, rebounding to 4.7% in 2024 via hydrocarbon recovery; fiscal deficits increased due to lower revenues, undermining debt sustainability.

Special Topic: Fiscal Instruments for Sustainable Forestry

• Congo Basin Importance: The forest acts as a major carbon sink but faces deforestation from logging and agriculture, impacting climate and biodiversity. Forestry contributes modestly to GDP and public revenues, with opportunities for value addition.
• Policy Recommendations: Implement carbon taxes, certification-based fees, and subsidies to encourage sustainable practices. Strengthen governance through monitoring and regional cooperation to combat illegal logging and secure international climate finance, aligning with frameworks like REDD+.

Key Conclusions and Risks

CEMAC's economic outlook is modest, hampered by structural weaknesses such as high poverty, unemployment, and climate vulnerabilities. Effective fiscal reforms and enhanced regional integration are crucial for sustainable development, while international support is essential for preserving the Congo Basin forests.