世界银行-中非经货共同体经济晴雨表，2023年12月，第5卷（英）-54页_3mb

Summary of CEMAC Economic and Monetary Community Report

Overview of CEMAC Region

The CEMAC region experienced continued recovery in 2022, with an average GDP growth rate of 3.0%. Growth is expected to decelerate slightly in 2023 to 2.5%. Reliance on oil and extractives exposes the economy to commodity volatility, as seen in fiscal improvements (surplus of 3.2% of GDP in 2022) but persistent poverty affecting nearly one-third of the population (US$2.15 per day). Inflation has been a challenge, averaging 6.9% in 2023, and external positions improved due to higher oil prices. Medium-term growth projections (2.3% in 2024-25) face risks from inflation, commodity price fluctuations, and political instability.

Country-Specific Insights

• Cameroon: Fastest growing country in CEMAC (3.8% in 2022), with a more diversified economy than others. Challenges include conflict, inequality, and dependency on public spending. Fiscal reforms reduced fuel subsidies, aiding debt reduction (target around 40% of GDP by 2025). Growth projected at 4.3% average (2024-26), but risks include security and global financial tightening.
• Central African Republic (CAR): Lowest growth performer (0.5% in 2022), exacerbated by conflict and insecurity. Poverty remains severe (65.5% extreme poverty), and reforms are incomplete. Growth projected at 1.3% in 2023, with risks including political instability and tighter global financial conditions.
• Chad: Growth was 3.0% in 2023, driven by oil and public investment. Challenges include climate vulnerability and humanitarian crises from Sudanese influx. Poverty increased slightly, and inflation surged to 13.2% in 2023. Risks include elections, insecurity, and oil price declines.
• Republic of Congo: Recovered to 3.2% growth in 2023, but high debt (83.6% by 2025) and oil dependency persist. Poverty headcount rising despite growth. Risks from volatile oil prices and weak reforms could hinder progress.
• Gabon: Achieved 3.0% growth in 2022, with fiscal surpluses, but high living costs and workforce issues. Poverty increased slightly due to post-COVID inflation. The 2023 coup introduces uncertainty, with risks including investment slowdown and climate shocks.
• Equatorial Guinea: Strong rebound in 2022 (3.1%), but overreliance on oil leads to vulnerability. Growth projected to fall back into recession (-4.0% average 2023-25), with risks including hydrocarbon decline and external deficits.

Analysis and Themes

The report identifies a "resource curse," where CEMAC countries exhibit lower growth and higher inequality compared to non-resource-rich nations, often due to Dutch disease (real exchange rate appreciation) and procyclical fiscal policies fueled by weak institutions. During the 2004-14 commodity boom, CEMAC countries increased dependence on resource exports without achieving broad-based prosperity. Key findings include: sustained growth during booms but recessions post-boom; negative adjusted net savings in some countries; and persistent poverty gaps between resource-rich and non-resource-rich nations. Natural resources offer potential but require better policy management to avoid the curse.

Policy Recommendations

To harness natural resource wealth for sustainable development, CEMAC should:

• Strengthen institutional capacity, fiscal discipline, and transparent revenue management.
• Promote economic diversification beyond oil and gas, with reforms facilitating intraregional trade.
• Implement countercyclical fiscal policies to buffer against commodity volatility.
• Increase investments in human and physical capital (education, health, infrastructure) and social protection.
• Enhance reforms under PREF-CEMAC II, with priority on non-oil revenue mobilization and public spending efficiency.

This summary captures the economic performance, challenges, and policy imperatives outlined in the CEMAC Economic Barometer 2023.