世界银行-中非经货共同体经济晴雨表_2024年11月_第7卷（英）_82页_5mb

The CEMAC Economic Barometer for November 2024 provides a snapshot of the region's economic performance and outlook as of 2024. The CEMAC region is expected to grow at 3.4% in 2024, down from 1.8% in 2023, supported by moderate growth in most countries except Equatorial Guinea, which saw a recession. Inflation has decreased, but poverty remains high, with over 30% of the population living in extreme poverty (below $2.15 per day). Fiscal deficits and high public debt persist, with most countries relying heavily on commodity exports, making them vulnerable to price volatility. Youth unemployment is high, and informal employment is widespread, hindering inclusive growth.

CEMAC's growth is below the WAEMU average of 5.7%, and challenges include low economic complexity, poor infrastructure connectivity, and underdeveloped export diversification. Country-specific updates highlight economic progress mixed with persistent fragility and social challenges. For example, Cameroon showed modest growth but faces high poverty; Chad is affected by external instability and climate shocks; the Central African Republic endures prolonged conflicts; Congo and Gabon benefit from oil revenues but struggle with debt sustainability; Equatorial Guinea experienced economic contraction due to hydrocarbon sector issues.

The report emphasizes the need for reforms to enhance human capital, improve infrastructure, promote private investment, and diversify regional trade. A special section on sustainable forestry in the Congo Basin addresses deforestation, low revenue from forestry, and policy recommendations. Fiscal instruments like taxes on unsustainable practices and incentives for certification can support sustainable forest management, but weak governance and insufficient funding are barriers. The region must strengthen international cooperation and leverage climate finance to preserve forests while fostering economic development.

Overall, the outlook is moderately positive but subject to significant risks, including geopolitical instability, climate events, and commodity price fluctuations. Accelerated reforms and coordinated actions are crucial for poverty reduction and sustainable growth in the CEMAC region.