高盛-亚洲地区-宏观策略-亚洲观点：2019年展望——一切适度（英文）-2018.12.15-7页

报告摘要

Asia-Pacific 2019 Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive overview of Goldman Sachs' 2019 outlook for the Asia-Pacific region, focusing on economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, trade tensions, and currency movements. It outlines key trends and expectations across various countries and economies within the region, as well as the broader implications for investors and policymakers.

Main Themes and Key Points

1. Economic Growth Outlook

Regional Growth Slowing: Growth in the Asia-Pacific region is expected to slow in 2019 compared to the previous year.
Trend Growth: Most economies are projected to grow at or slightly below the long-term trend rate.
China: Growth slowed to 5.9% in the first half of 2019, with trade-related components likely to continue decelerating.
India, Indonesia, Philippines: These countries, which run current account deficits, have seen monetary policy tightening in 2018.
ASEAN: Growth is expected to remain around 5.0% in 2019, slightly below previous levels.
Australia and New Zealand: Growth is expected to remain stable, with New Zealand showing a slight uptick.
USA and Euro Area: The US and Euro area are expected to grow at slower rates, with the Euro area showing more subdued performance.

2. Inflation Outlook

Muted Inflation: Inflation is expected to remain low across the region.
Oil Prices: A decline in oil prices and expected shale oil supply in 2019 will keep inflation subdued.
Indonesia: Fuel prices may rise due to potential subsidy cuts.
India: Food inflation, which makes up nearly half of the CPI basket, has been lower than expected.
Core Inflation: Capacity constraints are not tight in most economies, with Japan and the Philippines being exceptions.

3. Monetary Policy

Shallower but Broader Tightening: Central banks are expected to implement smaller but more widespread rate hikes.
Japan: The Bank of Japan will likely maintain an accommodative stance.
China: Policy rates are expected to remain stable, with a structural decline in the reserve requirement ratio.
India: The central bank is expected to raise rates more aggressively than in 2018 (+75bp).
Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand: These countries are likely to implement their first rate hikes in years, but cautiously.

4. Fiscal Policy Divergence

Japan: A 2% consumption tax hike in October 2019 is expected to boost growth in Q3 but slow it in Q4.
China: Fiscal policy is expected to ease further, with increased use of fiscal deposits and special local government bonds.
South Korea: Higher social spending will provide a modest fiscal impulse.
India: Large general government deficits are expected to limit a meaningful fiscal impulse.

5. Trade Policy Uncertainty

US-China Trade Tensions: Trade tensions remain a key source of uncertainty, especially for China.
Early Impact: US tariffs have already begun to affect investment in China.
G20 Meeting: There is hope for a "pause" in tariff escalation, though a comprehensive deal is unlikely.

6. Elections and Policy Shifts

India, Indonesia, Thailand, Australia: National elections are expected in Q2, which may lead to policy shifts and market opportunities.
India and Indonesia: The elections are a checkpoint for reform agendas under PM Modi and President Joko Widodo.
Thailand: A national election in early 2019 is likely, with uncertainty around the outcome.
Australia: A change in government is expected, potentially leading to increased public spending and stronger labor rights.

7. Currency Outlook

Near-Term Pressure: Regional currencies may face pressure due to expectations of further Fed hikes.
Long-Term Strength: Most currencies are expected to strengthen against the USD in 2019.
USD Peak: The USD is expected to approach its peak, easing pressure on the Chinese RMB and other deficit currencies.

8. Investment Outlook

High-Yield EM Asia: High-yield emerging market Asia bonds are expected to outperform low-yield counterparts due to slowing growth and more stable US yields.
Inflows to Deficit Economies: India, Indonesia, and the Philippines are expected to attract inflows due to relatively high yields.

Key Exhibits

Exhibit 1: Shows the slowing growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region in 2019.
Exhibit 2: Highlights the benign inflation outlook for most economies.
Exhibit 3: Illustrates the expected broader but shallower rate hikes across the region.
Exhibit 4: Demonstrates the underperformance of current account deficit currencies.
Exhibit 5: Shows the potential for interest rate declines in deficit economies.

Conclusion

The 2019 outlook for the Asia-Pacific region reflects a mix of moderate growth, subdued inflation, and cautious monetary tightening. Trade tensions and fiscal policy divergence are key factors influencing the economic and financial landscape. Investors should remain vigilant about policy changes and currency movements, with high-yield assets in current account deficit economies expected to perform better in a slowing growth environment.

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