那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-自动化与荷兰病-20180418-4页_528kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document explores the concept of "Dutch disease" in the context of automation and its impact on productivity in OECD countries. It challenges the conventional expectation that automation should lead to significant productivity gains and instead suggests that automation may not be translating into overall economic productivity improvements due to a shift in economic structure.

Main Viewpoints

• Automation and Productivity Gains: OECD countries have seen an increase in automation levels, particularly in manufacturing, as indicated by the rising stock of industrial robots.
• Productivity Conundrum: Despite the increase in automation, there has been no corresponding rise in economy-wide productivity.
• Dutch Disease Mechanism: The Dutch disease theory explains how an increase in income from a particular sector (such as manufacturing due to automation) leads to increased demand for non-tradable services, which in turn causes a shift of production factors (like labor and capital) from more productive, sophisticated sectors to less productive service sectors.
• Impact on Economy-Wide Productivity: The shift towards less productive services cancels out the productivity gains achieved in automated sectors, resulting in no net increase in overall productivity.

Key Information

• OECD Definition: The document simplifies the OECD as consisting of the United States, United Kingdom, euro zone, and Japan.
• Charts and Diagrams:
  • Chart 1 shows the increase in the stock of industrial robots in OECD countries.
  • Chart 2 illustrates the lack of corresponding productivity gains.
  • Chart 3 compares productivity in OECD countries.
  • Charts 4A and 4B show the skewing of the economy towards low-productivity services.
  • Diagram 1 visually represents the relationship between automation and Dutch disease.
• Dutch Disease in Automation: The document proposes that automation leads to increased income in manufacturing, which increases demand for services, thus causing a reallocation of resources and a reduction in overall productivity gains.
• Disclaimer and Legal Information:
  • The document is intended for professionals and qualified investors only.
  • It is strictly confidential and cannot be disclosed to third parties without prior consent.
  • It does not constitute a financial analysis or investment recommendation.
  • Natixis is regulated in various jurisdictions, including France, the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Dubai, but the document is not approved or registered in all regions.
  • The views expressed are the personal opinions of the authors and may differ.

Conclusion

The document concludes that the lack of productivity gains from automation in OECD countries can be explained by a Dutch disease-like effect, where the increased income from automation leads to a reallocation of resources towards less productive service sectors, thereby offsetting the gains in automated industries. This is a novel application of the Dutch disease theory to the context of technological advancement and economic structure.