那提西-德国-宏观经济-德国过剩储蓄的众多影响-20180124-6页_425kb

报告摘要

Flash Economics Summary: Germany's Excess Savings and Euro Zone Implications

Core Content

This document discusses the economic implications of Germany's excess savings within the Euro Zone, particularly focusing on the effects of lack of capital mobility since the euro-zone crisis (2011-2013). It outlines how these savings have impacted growth, inflation, interest rates, and the value of the euro.

Main Points

1. Excess Savings in the Euro Zone

The Euro Zone as a whole has excess savings, which is the reason for its external surplus.
Since the 2011-2013 crisis, Germany and the Netherlands have stopped lending their excess savings to other Euro Zone countries.
As a result, other Euro Zone countries had to eliminate their external deficits, contributing to the overall external surplus of the Euro Zone.

2. Consequences of Excess Savings

Domestic Demand and Growth: Excess savings weaken domestic demand, leading to reduced economic activity.
Investment and Long-term Growth: The lack of capital mobility has caused a decline in investment and long-term growth in the Euro Zone.
Inflation and Interest Rates:
- Excess savings contribute to low core inflation due to weak demand.
- They also lead to low long-term interest rates, as there is less demand for borrowing.
Currency Appreciation: The accumulation of external assets by the Euro Zone leads to euro appreciation.

3. Potential Impact of Restoring Capital Mobility

If capital mobility is restored, the excess savings of the Euro Zone would be reallocated to other member states.
This would result in:
- Increased investment and growth in the Euro Zone.
- Rising inflation, leading to faster normalization of monetary policy.
- Normalization of long-term interest rates.
- Depreciation of the euro.

Key Information

Germany and the Netherlands are the main sources of excess savings in the Euro Zone.
The external surplus of the Euro Zone is a result of these countries no longer financing the deficits of others.
Low inflation and low interest rates are linked to the current state of excess savings.
Euro appreciation is a consequence of the Euro Zone's external asset accumulation.
Restoring capital mobility could reverse these trends, leading to a rebalancing of the Euro Zone economy.

Charts Mentioned

Chart 1A: Euro Zone excess savings.
Chart 1B: Euro Zone external surplus.
Chart 2: Timeline of the euro-zone crisis (2011-2013).
Chart 3: External surplus of Germany and the Netherlands.
Chart 4: Euro Zone as a whole has an external surplus.
Chart 5: Euro Zone domestic demand and activity levels.
Chart 6A and B: Investment and growth trends in the Euro Zone.
Chart 7: Core inflation levels in the Euro Zone.
Chart 8A and B: Long-term interest rates and current-account balance.
Chart 9A and B: Net external debt and euro/dollar exchange rate.

Conclusion

The document concludes that restoring capital mobility between Euro Zone countries could lead to economic rebalancing, with positive effects on growth, inflation, and interest rates, but also a weakening of the euro. It emphasizes the importance of savings distribution in maintaining economic stability within the Euro Zone.

Disclaimer

The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
It is confidential and not to be disclosed to third parties without consent.
It does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation.
It is based on public information and not verified by Natixis.
The views expressed are those of the authors and may vary.
The document does not take into account specific tax or accounting rules of individual clients.