那提西银行-全球-宏观经济-金融宏观经济学的新模式-20180112-7页_467kb

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

The document titled "Flash Economics: Towards a new model of financial macroeconomics" by Patrick Artus discusses the evolution of financial macroeconomic models in OECD countries, particularly since the 2010s. It critiques the traditional model and proposes a new framework that better reflects current economic realities.

Traditional Model of Financial Macroeconomics

The traditional model assumed the following:

• Households act as lenders, while companies and the government act as borrowers.
• Household savings are channeled through financial markets and banks to finance both corporate investment and government deficits.
• Corporate finance can be either disintermediated (via equity and bond markets) or intermediated (via bank credit).
• Monetary policy primarily affects the economy by influencing the cost of corporate finance.

This model was relevant during the 1990s and early 2000s, when companies required external financing and fiscal deficits were significant.

Key Shifts in the OECD Economy

Since 2010, the OECD countries have experienced a significant shift:

• Companies have become self-financing, largely due to the skewing of income distribution in favor of profits.
• Household savings no longer need to be directed to corporate investment; instead, they are channeled into government financing.
• The government is now the primary borrower, and financial institutions (banks, markets, institutional investors) primarily serve the role of transferring household savings to the government.

New Questions Arising

The new economic reality raises different questions than the traditional model:

• What is the role of equity and corporate bond markets if companies no longer use them to raise finance?
• What is the purpose of banks if they only serve to finance the government?
• Is monetary policy still effective if companies self-finance their investment and external financing is no longer needed?

Conclusion: A New Model

The document concludes that the macrofinancial model must evolve:

• From a model where household savings finance both companies and the government, split between disintermediated and intermediated channels.
• To a model where household savings finance only the government, either through the bond market or via bank intermediation.

This shift implies that the role of complex financial systems (banks, markets, institutional investors) may be re-evaluated, as their function is now primarily to transfer savings to the government rather than to support corporate investment.

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