那提西银行-欧洲-经济理论-如果欧元区通胀再也没有回来怎么办？-20180320-6页_675kb

报告摘要

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document discusses the possibility of euro-zone inflation remaining near 1%, far below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target, and the potential consequences of such a scenario.

Main Views

1. Inflation Scenario

The current inflation figures in the euro zone suggest a low inflation environment.
A scenario is considered where inflation remains around 1% due to several factors:
- Lack of acceleration in unit labour costs, despite companies' recruitment difficulties.
- Stabilisation of oil prices and the euro's exchange rate.
- High corporate profit margins, which prevent companies from raising prices to restore profitability.

2. Consequences of Low Inflation

The ECB would need to revise its inflation forecasts downward, as shown in Table 1.
If the ECB does not revise its strategy, it may keep interest rates at zero.
Expected inflation would fall, leading to long-term interest rates returning to pre-2017 levels.

Key Information

1. Current Inflation Trends

There is no sign of rising inflation despite:
- High capacity utilisation rates.
- A fall in the unemployment rate.
- Companies' recruitment difficulties.

2. Factors Preventing Inflation from Rising

Phillips curve effects have disappeared, meaning the unemployment rate no longer influences nominal wage growth (2010–2017).
Oil prices have stabilised at a level lower than the start of 2018, reducing oil-driven inflation.
The euro's exchange rate has stabilised at a relatively high level, and non-energy import prices are not rising.
High profit margins among companies prevent them from increasing prices.

3. ECB Forecast Revisions

ECB's inflation forecasts for 2018–2020 were 1.4%, 1.5%, and 1.7%, respectively.
If inflation remains low, these forecasts would likely be revised downwards.

4. Impact on Interest Rates

Inflation swaps (Chart 7A) and 10-year government bond yields (Chart 7B) would likely decline.
This would return long-term interest rates to their pre-2017 levels.

Charts and Graphs

Chart 1A and 1B: Show inflation and core inflation trends.
Chart 2A and 2B: Illustrate unemployment rate and capacity utilisation.
Chart 3: Reflects the Phillips curve effect.
Chart 4A–C: Highlights the impact of oil prices on inflation.
Chart 5A and 5B: Displays the euro's exchange rate and non-energy import prices.
Chart 6: Indicates corporate profit margins.
Chart 7A and 7B: Shows inflation swaps and bond yields.

Conclusion

The possibility of low inflation in the euro zone is not zero.
A sustained inflation rate near 1% would challenge the ECB's inflation-targeting strategy.
It would likely result in lower interest rates and a reassessment of inflation expectations.

Disclaimer

This document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
It is strictly confidential and cannot be shared with third parties without consent.
It is not a financial analysis and is not a personalized investment recommendation.
No liability is accepted for any use or interpretation of the information.
The views expressed are the personal opinions of the authors and may differ.
The document is not approved or licensed by any regulatory body in the GCC or Lebanon.
Natixis is supervised by the ECB and regulated in various jurisdictions including France, the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, and Dubai.