海牙战略研究中心-2021年世界气候与安全报告（英文）-2021.6-92页_7mb

The World Climate and Security Report 2021 Summary

Core Content

The World Climate and Security Report 2021 is a comprehensive assessment of the security implications of climate change, produced by the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) Expert Group. It highlights the growing urgency of addressing climate-related security risks and offers tools and recommendations for policymakers and security institutions to adapt and respond effectively.

Main Authors and Institutions

• IMCCS Secretary General: The Honorable Sherri Goodman (Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Environmental Security)
• IMCCS Chair: General Tom Middendorp (Ret) (Former Chief of Defence of the Netherlands)
• Contributing Institutions:
  • The Center for Climate and Security (CCS)
  • The Planetary Security Initiative at Clingendael Institute
  • The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS)
  • The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS)

Key Sections and Findings

Foreword

• The report emphasizes the need for a global transition to more robust climate security practices.
• It highlights the development of a Climate Security Risk Matrix, a new methodology for evaluating comparative climate risks across countries.
• It calls for increased investment in carbon-neutral fuels and propulsion systems for military use and the integration of climate security into NATO's Strategic Concept and EU's Strategic Compass.

Introduction

• The 2021 report builds on the 2020 edition by providing tools for policymakers to assess and address climate security risks.
• It underscores the importance of integrated analysis and the need for implementation of climate security measures.
• The report aims to help security sectors prepare for and prevent climate-related risks by offering a detailed framework.

Key Risks and Opportunities

• Key Risks:

  • Climate change converges with other risks to create compound security threats.
  • Military forces are increasingly called upon to respond to climate-induced crises, which can affect readiness and infrastructure.
  • Best practices in climate security are limited, and proposed solutions must consider local dynamics.
  • The global governance system is not well-equipped to handle climate security risks, with outdated international law and lack of mechanisms for certain risks like geoengineering.

• Key Opportunities:

  • The return of the US to the global climate stage offers new opportunities for international cooperation.
  • EU and NATO leadership in climate security can serve as a model for other regions.
  • Climate-proofing development for fragile states should be a priority, focusing on water, food, and disaster resilience.
  • Predictive modeling and climate risk assessment should be integrated into military planning.
  • Security institutions should advocate for reduced greenhouse gas emissions.
  • International law needs to be updated to address climate security impacts, especially in areas like human rights and geoengineering.

Executive Summary

• The report includes a Climate Security Risk Perception Survey and a Climate Security Risk Matrix.
• The survey involved 57 global experts and assessed the severity of climate-related security risks over three timeframes: 2021, 2031, and 2041.
• Key findings from the survey include:
  • All climate security phenomena are expected to pose severe to catastrophic risks by 2031.
  • Water, ecosystem, health, and national security threats are the most consistent risks.
  • Human security risks (e.g., food, water, economics, infrastructure) are anticipated to be more severe than military security risks by 2041.
  • Novel risks such as geoengineering and cascading climate-induced disasters require more attention.

Survey Conclusions

• The survey data indicates that climate security risks are becoming more severe and interconnected.
• Direct environmental impacts (e.g., precipitation changes, sea-level rise, natural disasters) will have significant effects on agricultural, economic, and healthcare systems.
• The reporting of climate security risks is increasingly seen as interconnected and compounding, similar to the impact of the pandemic.
• Collaboration between security institutions and natural/social scientists is essential for forecasting new risks and building institutional capacity.

Recommendations

• Develop new global governance tools to address climate security implications in areas like human rights, international maritime law, and geoengineering.
• Fully engage existing institutions such as the UN Security Council and the Green Climate Fund.
• Integrate climate risk assessment into military planning and force readiness.
• Prioritize climate-proof development for fragile states, focusing on resilience and adaptation.

Conclusion

The World Climate and Security Report 2021 underscores the critical link between climate change and security, and calls for collective global action to mitigate these risks. It highlights the need for policy implementation, international cooperation, and innovation in military technology to address the unprecedented security challenges posed by climate change.