深度-荷兰国际关系研究所-2021年世界气候与安全报告（英文）-2021.6-92页_7mb

The World Climate and Security Report 2021 Summary

Core Content

The World Climate and Security Report 2021 is a comprehensive assessment of climate-related security risks and opportunities, produced by the International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS) Expert Group. It aims to inform policymakers and security institutions on how to effectively address the growing security implications of climate change.

The report emphasizes that climate change is no longer a distant threat but an immediate and evolving challenge that impacts global security in profound ways. It outlines the need for a shift from theoretical understanding to practical implementation of climate security measures across defense, development, and diplomacy sectors.

Main Findings

Key Risks

1. Compound Security Threats: Climate change interacts with other risks to create complex and severe threats to states and societies. For example, the convergence of the pandemic, economic shocks, and climate-related droughts and flooding has increased global food insecurity and instability.

2. Intensifying Risks: Climate security risks are expected to intensify across all regions, with new disasters occurring before societies have fully recovered from previous ones. Fragile regions will face the most severe consequences, though no region is immune.

3. Military Overextension: As extreme weather events become more frequent and severe, militaries will be increasingly called upon to respond to these crises, which can overstretch their capabilities and reduce readiness.

4. Inadequate Integration: Many proposed climate security solutions fail to consider local dynamics or community perspectives, potentially leading to unintended security consequences.

5. Global Governance Gap: The current international legal framework is not equipped to address the security risks of climate change, especially for emerging challenges like geoengineering.

Key Opportunities

1. U.S. Leadership: The return of the United States to global climate leadership under the Biden administration presents new opportunities for international cooperation on climate security.

2. EU and NATO Leadership: The EU and NATO can lead by example in integrating climate security into their strategic frameworks and operations.

3. Climate-Proof Development: Prioritizing climate resilience in development for fragile states, especially in areas like water, food, and disaster preparedness, is critical for conflict prevention.

4. Predictive Modeling: Adopting predictive modeling and climate risk assessment methodologies can help security institutions better prepare for and mitigate climate-related threats.

5. Global Governance Reform: Developing new international mechanisms to address climate security impacts, including those related to geoengineering, is essential for long-term stability.

Tools and Methodologies

• Climate Security Risk Perception Survey: Conducted with 57 global experts, the survey assesses climate security risks across three timeframes: 2021, 2031, and 2041. It highlights that by 2031, all climate security phenomena are expected to pose severe-to-catastrophic risks, with water, ecosystem, health, and national security threats being the most consistent.

• Climate Security Risk Matrix: A first-of-its-kind methodology that evaluates comparative climate security risks across countries, based on the probability and consequences of hazardous climate-related events.

• Climate-Security-Triangle Model: A new tool to assess how climate security activities are driven by climate change, traditional security dynamics, or both, aiding policymakers in identifying effective interventions.

Regional Analysis

• Sub-Saharan Africa: The report includes a detailed analysis of the region's climate security risks, emphasizing the need for tailored solutions to address local vulnerabilities.

• European Union: The EU is highlighted as a leader in decarbonization and climate security, with the Climate Change and Defense Road Map as a key opportunity for integration.

• Selected Countries and Regions: The report also provides "Year in Review" snapshots of key developments in the United States, East Asia, Central America, Brazil, and Russia, showing how climate security issues have manifested in these areas.

Recommendations

1. Develop New Global Governance Tools: To address climate security implications in areas such as human rights, international maritime law, and geoengineering.

2. Leverage Existing Institutions: Fully engage and utilize institutions like the UN Security Council and the Green Climate Fund to support global climate security efforts.

3. Invest in R&D: Prioritize research and development of carbon-neutral fuels and propulsion systems for military use, which could also benefit the civilian sector.

4. Collaborate with Scientists: Policymakers and defense leaders should work closely with natural and social scientists to forecast and prepare for emerging climate security risks.

5. Integrate Climate into Security Planning: Security institutions must shift from focusing solely on military assets to considering broader societal threats and their interdependencies.

Conclusion

The report underscores that climate change is a critical aspect of both national and global security, requiring urgent and coordinated global action. It calls for a transition from concept to implementation, with a focus on resilience, preparedness, and the development of new tools and frameworks to address the multifaceted nature of climate security risks. The findings suggest that the next two decades will see a significant escalation in these risks, necessitating proactive and informed strategies to mitigate their impact.