20240925-联储证券-食饮ETF_消费改善与估值修复共推价值提升_19页_1mb

Demand Side: The impact of earlier suppression factors is weakening, and the value of certainty remains. Due to the implementation of multiple major incremental policies announced in the press conference held by the State Council Information Office on September 24, 2024, Q4 economic growth is expected to accelerate with policy support, and social retail revenue growth should continue. The drag from real estate is gradually easing, boosting the sustained growth of the food and beverage industry. While consumption upgrades have slowed, the trend of consumption differentiation is becoming more apparent, with quality improvement and high-value consumption promoting each other. Therefore, high-end products still have price support, and mass-market products still have growth momentum in consumption volume.

Supply Side: Significant improvements in mass-market products are evident, and Baijiu may bottom out and rebound. With the acceleration of market clearance in the past, the "winner-takes-all" effect in the food and beverage industry is intensifying. Listed companies are expected to benefit more from policy encouragement, internal innovation, and demand recovery. For example, the Baijiu industry may benefit from opportunities for stabilizing volume and price through refined management, while mass-market products may see profit margin improvements due to cost reductions. Premium-priced categories are expected to drive quality upgrades, medium-price categories may expand, and low-price categories may capture consumer upgrades.

Valuation Standpoint: The market has experienced an excessive adjustment, making the food and beverage sector more attractive in terms of valuation. After three years of deep readjustment, the valuation of the food and beverage industry has fallen to a very low historical level. As of September 20, 2024, the S&P CSI Food and Beverage Index PE-TTM (without adjustment) has dropped to 1,774 times, placing it in the lower percentile of the past 10 years. Compared to 2019, the average valuation before the pandemic was 3,027 times, indicating that the current valuation is in a safe range with strong support. Valuation repair is expected in the coming period.

Investment Suggestions: The long-term investment value of the food and beverage ETF is prominent. In terms of choosing food and beverage ETFs, focus should be on funds with flexible stock adjustments and stable fund duration. Among funds holding more than 40% in the food and beverage industry, it is recommended to choose funds with larger scale for broader holdings and greater stability and adjustment range, such as Huishan Zhongzheng Main Consumer ETF (159928SZ) and Tianhong CSI Food and Beverage ETF (159736SZ). Alternatively, funds with relatively impressive historical performance can be considered, as less drawdown in the first half of 2024 may reflect faster market responsiveness by the management team or higher proportions of industry leading stock holdings, offering greater valuation repair and profit margin elasticity, such as Consumption 30 ETF (510630SH) and Hua Bao Consumption Leader ETF (516130SH).

The investment outlook for the food and beverage industry remains upbeat despite certain headwinds. The combination of consumption improvement and valuation repair provides a timely opportunity for investment, especially with the potential for policy support in the fourth quarter. While risks such as economic downturn, international tensions, food safety, and geopolitical issues must be considered, the valuation is attractive and the industry could continue its recovery during key consumption periods like the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays.