2015年-世界发展银行全球_Ukraine_Recovery_and_Peacebuiding_Assessment___Analysis_of_Crisis_Impacts_and_Needs_in_Eastern_Ukraine_Volume_2_Full_Component_Reports_149页_3mb

Summary of the Ukraine Recovery and Peacebuilding Assessment (Volume II)

Core Content

This document is part of the Ukraine Recovery and Peacebuilding Assessment (RPA), a collaborative effort by the European Union (EU), the United Nations (UN), and the World Bank Group (WBG). The report focuses on the Eastern Ukraine and outlines the crisis impacts, recovery needs, and strategic recommendations for rebuilding the region.

The report is structured into three main components:

1. Infrastructure and Social Services (IS)
2. Economic Recovery
3. Social Resilience, Peacebuilding, and Community Security

The main goal is to systematize recovery planning in the context of an ongoing conflict, ensuring that actionable and comparable data is available for targeted interventions.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Infrastructure and Social Services (IS) Component

• Estimated Total Recovery Needs: US$1,257.7 million

• Subsector Breakdown:

  • Education: US$9.7 million
  • Energy: US$78.9 million
  • Environment: US$30.0 million
  • Health: US$184.2 million
  • Housing: US$27.2 million
  • Social Welfare: US$329.4 million
  • Transport: US$558.2 million
  • Water and Sanitation: US$40.1 million

• Key Objectives:

  • Characterize and estimate crisis impacts on infrastructure and social services
  • Propose strategic options for recovery and rebuilding
  • Identify and quantify transitional recovery needs

• Significance:

  • IS recovery is essential for societal normalization, stabilization, and IDP returns
  • Efficient service delivery helps restore citizen trust in the state
  • Immediate attention to energy and health services is critical to avoid severe impacts on vulnerable populations

• Methodology:

  • Combined post-conflict and post-disaster assessment tools
  • Used replacement value of assets and infrastructure
  • Included Building Back Better and Smarter (BBBS) considerations
  • Data collected and validated through field inspections, stakeholder interviews, and desk reviews

• Challenges:

  • Incomplete or unavailability of damage data in active conflict zones
  • Staff capacity and equipment loss in directly affected regions
  • Displacement and increased service demand in indirectly affected areas
  • Gender-disaggregated data is limited, but encouraged for future assessments

• Institutional Collaboration:

  • Led by the Government of Ukraine (GoU), with Ministry of Regional Development, Construction, Housing and Communal Services and Ministry of Infrastructure as primary counterparts
  • Local administrations and sector focal points provided input
  • The Donbas Recovery Agency (DRA) and Donbas Recovery Programme (DRP) are central to the recovery strategy

2. Economic Recovery Component

• Estimated Total Recovery Needs: US$135.5 million

• Subsector Breakdown:

  • Employment: US$40.0 million
  • Productive Capacities and Livelihoods: US$33.0 million
  • Local Economic Planning (LEP): US$7.5 million
  • SMEs and Private Sector: US$30.0 million
  • Financial Services: US$25.0 million

• Key Findings:

  • Macroeconomic impact: Significant reduction in industrial production and retail turnover
  • Labor market profile: Sharp decline in labor demand and employment in conflict-affected areas
  • Occupational shifts: Increase in entrepreneurial activity and self-employment
  • Wage trends: Real wage growth stagnated or declined in 2014 compared to 2013
  • Industrial capacity: Donbas industrial capacity is largely in areas not under government control, affecting economic output and employment

• Strategic Recommendations:

  • Implement Crisis Response Works Program to address immediate employment and service needs
  • Focus on rebuilding productive capacities and livelihoods
  • Support local economic planning and SMEs to stimulate economic activity
  • Strengthen financial services to ensure economic stability

3. Social Resilience, Peacebuilding, and Community Security Component

• Estimated Total Recovery Needs: US$126.8 million

• Subsector Breakdown:

  • Understand vulnerability, risk, and social cohesion: US$2.5 million
  • Promote social cohesion and trust building: US$19.7 million
  • Promote a culture of tolerance through dialogue: US$11.4 million
  • Protect conflict-affected populations: US$5.8 million
  • Promote access to justice: US$8.1 million
  • Provide legal assistance: US$6.6 million
  • Offer psychosocial support: US$28.4 million
  • Restore community security: US$23.9 million
  • Prepare for DDR (Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration): US$20.4 million

• Key Objectives:

  • Strengthen social resilience and community security
  • Promote peacebuilding and trust restoration
  • Provide psychosocial support and legal aid to conflict-affected populations

• Strategic Recommendations:

  • Conduct training needs analysis (TNA) and risk assessments
  • Implement inclusive recovery planning to foster consensual decision-making
  • Ensure equal access to services for both host and IDP communities
  • Develop community security measures and DDR programs

Key Assumptions, Constraints, and Limitations

• Scope:

  • Limited to specific subsectors: energy, transport, water and sanitation, health, education, social welfare, environment, and housing
  • Focus on government-controlled areas in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
  • Some adjacent oblasts hosting IDPs are also included

• Temporal Limitation:

  • Data cutoff at end of November 2014
  • Ongoing conflict may necessitate periodic updates and needs-based adjustments

• Data Challenges:

  • Incomplete data in conflict zones
  • Limited gender-disaggregated data in infrastructure sector
  • No inclusion of facilities under separatist control in damage estimates, but their unavailability is considered in needs analysis

Conclusion

The Ukraine Recovery and Peacebuilding Assessment provides a comprehensive analysis of the crisis impacts and recovery needs in the Eastern Ukraine. It outlines a multi-component approach to rebuilding the region, emphasizing the interconnectedness of infrastructure, economic recovery, and social resilience. The report highlights the urgent need for reconstruction, service restoration, and peacebuilding initiatives to stabilize the region and support IDP returns. It serves as a baseline for future recovery efforts and recommends a continuous, adaptive process for monitoring and updating recovery strategies.