2024-09-29-世界银行-在南非创建绿色船用燃料市场（英）_152页_21mb

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Comprehensive overview of "Creating a Green Marine Fuel Market in South Africa" by the World Bank:

1. South Africa's Green Hydrogen Ambition:
   The country positions itself to become a major global supplier of green hydrogen, leveraging its maritime sector. Green hydrogen is projected to contribute 3.6% to South Africa's GDP and create 380,000 jobs by 2050. The government actively pursues the hydrogen economy, aiming to capture 25% of the global market by 2030.

2. Maritime Sector's Role:
   International shipping is identified as the single largest user of hydrogen by 2050. Given its global regulatory nature and South Africa's strategic coastal locations, it offers stable demand for green hydrogen. Under the IMO's 2030 targets, ships must use low-carbon fuels, creating a market opportunity.

3. Market Demand Projections:
   South Africa's commercial ports could collectively demand approximately 56,000 tons of green hydrogen annually by 2030, rising to 530,000 tons by 2050. Key ports, such as Durban and Richards Bay, dominate this demand. Excluding the Cape of Good Hope, additional ships bypassing South Africa could add another 1.3 million tons by 2050.

4. Green Shipping Fuel Production:
   Green ammonia or methanol is positioned as the most viable hydrogen-derived fuel for ships. The case study for the Port of Saldanha demonstrates the feasibility of producing 280,000 tons of green ammonia annually. However, cost competitiveness remains a challenge, especially compared to conventional fuels.

5. Key Risks:
   Major hurdles include an ongoing electricity crisis and operational inefficiencies in ports. Green hydrogen projects could help address grid constraints but require robust transmission infrastructure support. Port inefficiencies, such as those reported in 2023 (e.g., delays in coal exports), undermine the potential for green fuel exports.

6. Policy Recommendations:

   • Advance the Green Hydrogen Commercialization Strategy to kickstart production and align with IMO rules.
   • Develop a regulatory framework for handling hydrogen-based fuels, such as ammonia, in ports to ensure safety and environmental integrity.
   • Promote international adoption of low-carbon fuel standards at the IMO to drive demand through goal-based shipping fuel mandates.
   • Mobilize private capital through partnerships with development institutions, blended finance, and leveraging mechanisms like carbon border adjustments.

7. Decarbonization Imperative:
   The maritime sector is crucial for reducing shipping emissions, targeting 5–10% low-carbon fuels in the energy mix by 2030. Green hydrogen is projected to power 64% of future ship fuel mixes. Successfully fulfilling this ambition requires coordinated efforts from government and industry to accelerate project financing and implementation.