穆迪-全球-资本市场-尽管有美国税改，高收益债券发行依然繁荣-20180125-29页_1mb

报告摘要

Moody's Weekly Market Outlook Summary

Core Content

Moody's Analytics Weekly Market Outlook highlights the resilience of high-yield bond issuance in 2018 despite changes in U.S. tax law. The report analyzes economic trends, credit market conditions, and key indicators across the U.S., Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions.

Main Points

High-Yield Bond Issuance

Tax Law Impact: The full deductibility of business interest expense remains in place for most investment-grade companies, while lower-rated, financially stressed companies are affected.
2018 Outlook: U.S. dollar-denominated high-yield bond issuance is expected to grow by 3% to $468 billion, with the issuance of bonds rated B3 or lower rising to 15% of the total in January 2018.
2017 Performance: In 2017, high-yield bond issuance reached a new calendar-year high of $453 billion, with lower-rated bonds (B3 or lower) accounting for 25.3% of total issuance.
Default Rates: The U.S. high-yield default rate is forecasted to average 2.4% in the final quarter of 2018, down from 3.3% in December 2017, indicating improved credit quality.
Borrowing Activity: Lower default rates support high-yield borrowing, and the correlation between default rates and issuance is strong. Refinancing and M&A activities are key drivers of high-yield bond issuance.

Credit Market Metrics

Bond Spreads: The month-long average for a composite high-yield bond spread in January 2018 is likely to be the lowest since June 2007, at 277 basis points.
Investment Grade Spreads: The average investment grade bond spread is expected to exceed 100 basis points by year-end 2018.
High-Yield Spreads: The high-yield spread may approach 400 basis points by year-end 2018, up from 329 basis points in recent months.

Economic Outlook

U.S. Economy: Home sales are expected to provide direction for Treasury bond yields. A weak dollar and strong housing market suggest potential support for economic growth.
Euro Zone: The economy is expected to grow at 0.6% q/q and 2.6% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2017, with manufacturing and services driving growth.
Asia-Pacific: Japan's economy remained stable in December, with a steady unemployment rate and strong industrial production. China's manufacturing PMI is expected to decline slightly to 51.4 in January. Australia's inflation is expected to remain near the central bank's target range.

Key Information

Tax Reform Impact: The loss of full deductibility of interest expense affects lower-rated companies more significantly, but high-yield issuance has not been severely impacted.
Default Rates: The U.S. high-yield default rate is expected to decline, which supports continued issuance activity.
Bond Issuance Drivers: Refinancing of existing debt and M&A activity are primary reasons for high-yield bond issuance.
Market Correlation: There is a strong correlation between the default rate and high-yield bond issuance, with declining default rates typically preceding increased issuance.
Exchange Rate Dynamics: The U.S. dollar has weakened, potentially due to Fed policy and global economic recovery, which could affect trade and monetary policy.
Euro Zone Growth: Germany and France are expected to lead the growth in the euro zone, with manufacturing and services playing a key role.
Asia-Pacific Trends: Japan's economy is expected to remain stable, supported by global demand and a weaker yen. Australia's inflation is expected to stay near target, allowing the central bank to maintain interest rates.

The Week Ahead

U.S. Reports: The January employment report and FOMC meeting are key events. Other indicators include personal income, core PCE deflator, ADP employment report, and vehicle sales.
Euro Zone Reports: Preliminary GDP figures for France and the euro zone are expected to show strong growth, with retail sales and household consumption playing a role.
Asia-Pacific Reports: Japan's unemployment rate and industrial production data will be released, along with China's manufacturing PMI and Australia's consumer price index.

Summary Table

Region	Key Focus	Expected Outcome
U.S.	High-Yield Bond Issuance, Dollar Slide	Resilient issuance, weak dollar, potential impact on inflation and growth
Europe	Euro Zone GDP, Construction, Services	Strong GDP growth, subdued construction, services remain solid
Asia-Pacific	Japan, China, Australia	Stable Japan economy, slight decline in China's PMI, inflation near target in Australia

Figures and Data

Figure 1: Bonds rated less than B2 as a percentage of outstanding U.S. high-yield corporate bonds support expectations of a lower default rate.
Figure 2: Historical data show a strong correlation between declining default rates and increased high-yield bond issuance.
Figure 4: The taper tantrum of 2013-2014 showed how rising Treasury yields can impact home sales.
Figure 5: Rising industrial commodity prices are expected to push Treasury yields higher.

Conclusion

The report underscores the continued strength of high-yield bond issuance despite tax law changes, the importance of default rates in credit market dynamics, and the interplay between economic indicators and market behavior across the U.S., Europe, and Asia-Pacific. It also highlights the potential for further economic growth and the need for caution regarding systemic liquidity risks.

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