20180125-穆迪服务-High-Yield_Bond_Issuance_Thrives_Despite_Tax_Law_Changes_29页_895kb

Moody's Weekly Market Outlook Summary

Core Content

Moody's Weekly Market Outlook highlights the resilience of high-yield bond issuance despite recent tax law changes in the U.S. and provides insights into the performance of credit markets, economic indicators, and monetary policy developments across the U.S., Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions.

Main Points

High-Yield Bond Issuance

• Resilience Amid Tax Law Changes: Despite the loss of full deductibility of business interest expense, high-yield bond issuance has continued to thrive in 2018.
• Impact of Tax Law: The tax law allows full deductibility of interest expenses until they reach 30% of EBITDA, which benefits lower-rated, financially stressed companies.
• 2018 Outlook: U.S.-denominated high-yield bond issuance is expected to grow by 3% to $467 billion, compared to a 6.8% increase in 2017.
• Rating Distribution: Bonds rated B3 or lower accounted for 15% of January 2018 high-yield bond issuance, showing a strong presence of very low-rated bonds.
• Default Rate: The U.S. high-yield default rate is forecasted to average 2.4% in Q4-2018, lower than the 3.3% in December 2017.
• Correlation with Defaults: A declining default rate has historically supported high-yield bond issuance, with 66% of past year-to-year declines in default rates coinciding with increases in high-yield bond issuance.

Market Data and Credit Spreads

• Credit Spreads: Investment-grade bond spreads are expected to exceed 100 basis points by year-end 2018, while high-yield spreads may reach 400 basis points.
• Corporate Borrowing: The average high-yield coupon (6.38%) is 77 basis points higher than the average speculative-grade yield (5.61%), indicating a favorable backdrop for corporate borrowing.

The Week Ahead

• U.S. Economic Reports: Key reports include the January employment data, the FOMC meeting, and the ADP employment report.
• Euro Zone: Expected to show strong GDP growth, with France leading the expansion. Construction activity in France is forecasted to rebound in Q1-2018.
• Asia-Pacific: Japan's economy remained stable in December, with steady unemployment and a strong industrial production outlook. China's manufacturing PMI is expected to decline slightly to 51.4 in January. Australia's inflation is expected to remain in line with the RBA's target.

Key Information

U.S. Market Highlights

• Dollar Depreciation: The U.S. dollar has weakened by over 9% since the start of 2017, which may support GDP growth and core inflation.
• Monetary Policy: The Fed's tightening cycle is nearing its end, which may reduce the strength of the dollar.
• Treasury Yields: Industrial commodity price inflation is pushing Treasury yields higher, potentially affecting home sales and corporate borrowing.

Europe Market Highlights

• GDP Growth: The euro zone is expected to maintain a strong growth rate of 0.6% q/q and 2.6% y/y for Q4-2017.
• Consumer Spending: Consumer spending has been a key driver of growth, though services output is expected to remain stable.
• Construction Activity: Construction output in France is expected to contract slightly, but may rebound in Q1-2018 due to improved leading indicators.

Asia-Pacific Market Highlights

• Japan: The economy held steady in December, with a stable unemployment rate and strong industrial production driven by global demand.
• China: Manufacturing PMI for January is expected to decline slightly to 51.4, reflecting a slight slowdown in manufacturing activity.
• Australia: Inflation is expected to remain near the RBA's target, allowing the central bank to keep interest rates on hold in 2018.

Conclusion

Moody's report underscores the continued strength of high-yield bond issuance despite regulatory changes, highlighting the importance of credit quality and market dynamics. The U.S., Europe, and Asia-Pacific regions each show distinct economic trends, with the U.S. focusing on dollar depreciation and Treasury yields, Europe on GDP growth and construction activity, and Asia-Pacific on industrial production and inflation expectations. The report also emphasizes the need for vigilance in monitoring default rates and their impact on credit markets.