2019年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Argentina_Technical_Assistance_Report_34页_1mb

报告摘要

Argentina: Technical Assistance Report on External Sector Statistics (November 14–25, 2016)

Core Content

This report outlines the findings of a technical assistance mission conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Argentina in November 2016. The mission was requested by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) and aimed to assist in improving the compilation and dissemination of external sector statistics (ESS) in line with the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6). The report includes a detailed assessment of the current methodology, data sources, and challenges in ESS compilation, as well as a proposed action plan to enhance the quality and consistency of these statistics.

Main Data Sources

The main data sources for ESS in Argentina include:

Customs records for trade transactions.
Corporate surveys conducted by the National Directorate of External Sector Statistics (DNSE), including the service corporations survey and the National Survey of Large Corporations (ENGE).
International tourism survey in coordination with the National Tourism Bureau.
Accounting information from publicly traded corporations and securities issuers.
Administrative records from ministries, the National Superintendent of Insurance (SSN), the National Social Security Administration (ANSES), and the stock exchange.
Exchange balance and free and single foreign-exchange market (MULC) data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Argentina (BCRA).
Debt Management and Financial Analysis System (DMFAS) and Quarterly External Debt Statistics (QEDS).

Key Challenges and Recommendations

Current Account

Goods Account: Data are based on customs records and DNSE surveys. A project to provide detailed importer/exporter data by CUIT is on hold due to IT constraints. Migrants' personal effects are included, but the mission recommends their exclusion.
Services Account: Includes data from DNSE surveys and estimates based on carrier flags and revenue percentages. The mission recommends including sea and land passenger-transport corporations in the survey and assessing average expenditures of Argentine travelers abroad.
Primary Income: Estimated using data from diplomatic missions, Yacyretá binational corporation, and service-corporation surveys. The mission recommends discontinuing the imputation of tax withholdings under service exports.
Secondary Income: Includes administrative data and surveys on remittances, social contributions, and transfers. The mission recommends removing tax imputations to improve accuracy.

Capital Account

Data on the sale and purchase of sportspeople and patents/brands are collected through clubs and service-corporation surveys. These are generally in line with BPM6, though improvements are needed.

Financial Account and International Investment Position (IIP)

Data are compiled from BCRA, DTCs, and other sources, including the CNV and ENGE. The main challenge is the outdated nature of private-sector external asset data, particularly in real-estate, foreign currency deposits, and securities. The mission recommends updating these data to improve estimates.
The mission identified discrepancies in data classification between BCRA and DNCI, particularly in the financial account and IIP, with a gap of USD 5 billion or 3% of total liabilities. It recommended addressing these discrepancies through improved data reconciliation.

Action Plan

Priority	Activity	Quantifiable Performance Indicator	Completion Date	Comments/External Factors
H	Introduce an arrangement for smooth exchange of information and data reconciliation with BCRA	Data on MULC, private debt, and direct investment are exchanged, and statistics are consistent	March 2017	Requires BCRA cooperation
H	Compile financial account and IIP on a quarterly basis for 2010–2016 using BPM6 methodology	Data for 2010–2016 IIP quarterly series are available	March 2017	Preliminary data for 2014–2015 were compiled
H	Update information used to estimate external assets of nonfinancial private sector	New basic data are available to run the estimates	June 2017	-
M	Remove migrants' personal effects from the Goods Account	Migrants' personal effects are no longer included	June 2017	Customs records contain relevant info
M	Include sea and land passenger-transport corporations in transport surveys	These corporations are included in DNSE surveys	December 2017	Requires budgetary appropriation
M	Assess average expenditure of Argentine travelers abroad	Data on average expenditure are collected from counterparty countries	June 2017	-
M	Revise insurance services estimates with new data from SSN	New estimates are included in balance of payments	March 2017	SSN agreed to provide data
M	Calculate financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM)	FISIM estimates are available	December 2017	-
M	Identify loans from nonresident to resident direct-investment corporations and vice versa	Loans are identified separately	December 2017	Requires BCRA cooperation
H	Redefine ESS revision policy	New ESS revision policy is in place	June 2017	-
H	Identify OFCs under ORS and include insurance and mutual fund assets	Detailed ORS data and technical reserves are included	June 2017	-
H	Continue discussions with DNSE on payment and collection data	Surveys may include collection of payment data	December 2017	Requires budgetary appropriation
H	Provide expanded training on databases and add three new staff	New staff is in place and training is available	March 2017	-

Key Information

The ESS compilation in Argentina is currently based on the fifth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual.
The mission found the data sources and compilation procedures to be sound but identified opportunities for improvement.
The mission recommended moving to BPM6 methodology and improving data quality and consistency.
Enhanced cooperation between INDEC and BCRA is essential for better data reconciliation and dissemination.
The use of microdata and the introduction of IT tools and trained staff are necessary for more accurate and efficient ESS compilation.
The IIP is planned to be compiled and disseminated on a quarterly basis starting from March 31, 2017, with a 90-day lag.

Conclusion

The mission emphasized the importance of improving data sources, enhancing IT infrastructure, and strengthening inter-agency cooperation to ensure the quality and consistency of ESS in Argentina. The recommended actions focus on aligning with BPM6, updating outdated data, and improving the accuracy of estimates, particularly for the financial account and IIP. The authorities expressed interest in a follow-up mission in late April or early May 2017.

展开完整摘要