2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Indonesia_Technical_Assistance_Report_22页_1mb

Summary of the Technical Assistance Mission on Sectoral Accounts and Balance Sheets in Indonesia

Core Content

This report outlines the findings and recommendations of a technical assistance mission conducted in Indonesia from January 8–12, 2018, as part of the Switzerland State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) project. The mission aimed to enhance the capacity of Indonesia to compile integrated sectoral accounts and balance sheets in line with the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA). The goal is to improve the quality, reliability, and timeliness of macroeconomic data, which are essential for detecting systemic risks and understanding intersectoral relationships.

The mission emphasized the importance of inter-agency collaboration among key institutions such as the Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Bank Indonesia (BI), Financial Services Authority (OJK), and Ministry of Finance (MOF). These institutions are responsible for providing and compiling data for various sectors, including nonfinancial corporations, general government, and financial corporations.

Main Objectives and Outcomes

1. Compilation of Integrated Sectoral Accounts and Balance Sheets

• Objective: Develop annual and quarterly sectoral accounts and balance sheets in accordance with the 2008 SNA framework.
• Outcomes:
  • The project is largely on track, with progress made in compiling data for the years 2010–2015.
  • Quarterly data for 2015 are expected by the end of 2018, which will serve as a basis for future quarterly data.
  • Some target dates have been delayed, requiring revised deadlines and close monitoring.

2. Institutional Collaboration

• Steering Committee: Established with high-level officials including the Chief Statistician of BPS, BI Governor, OJK Executive Director, and MOF Minister. It oversees the project.
• Working Group: Composed of managers responsible for data provision, ensuring project progress and coordination.
• Technical Group: Composed of experts who ensure consistency in data compilation and resolve discrepancies.

3. Data Sources and Compilation Methods

• Nonfinancial Corporations (NFCs):
  • Data for private NFCs come from BPS annual surveys and IDX for quarterly data.
  • Public NFCs are managed by the Ministry of State Owned Enterprises (MOSOE), which provides data for the 18 largest enterprises.
  • BPS uses regression analysis to estimate quarterly data for unlisted NFCs based on listed NFCs, and this should be continued.
• General Government:
  • Central government data are collected monthly by MOF and reported quarterly to BPS.
  • Quarterly data for provinces and municipalities are estimated using budget-based patterns, with a three-month lag.
  • Data for villages are not yet available, but the mission recommends using cash transfers as a proxy for revenue and estimating quarterly expenditure based on annual data.
• Financial Corporations:
  • BI compiles data for the central bank and other deposit-taking corporations (ODTCs).
  • OJK compiles data for other financial corporations, including mutual funds, which are currently grouped under securities companies but should be classified separately.

Key Recommendations

Priority Recommendations

Additional Recommended Actions

• BPS should conduct a regression analysis of changes in equity positions of unlisted NFCs against listed NFCs to estimate quarterly data.
• OJK should provide data on private listed enterprises in a machine-readable format (e.g., Excel) to improve efficiency.
• MOF and BPS should estimate quarterly revenue and expenditure for villages using cash transfers and annual data ratios.
• BPS and MOF should determine the classification and treatment of the social security fund, which is not yet resolved.

Key Information

• The mission was part of the G20 Data Gaps Initiative, Phase II, which emphasizes the importance of integrated sectoral accounts and balance sheets.
• There is a need for improved data sources and data sharing mechanisms between agencies to ensure accuracy and consistency.
• The mission highlighted the importance of quarterly data for real-time economic monitoring and policy-making.
• The revised target dates were agreed upon, and the mission emphasized the need to avoid further delays.
• Inter-agency coordination is crucial for the success of the project, and the establishment of formal groups has been a key step in this direction.

Conclusion

The mission concluded that Indonesia has made significant progress in setting up the institutional framework for compiling integrated sectoral accounts and balance sheets. However, challenges remain in data collection, especially for quarterly data for certain sectors like unlisted NFCs and villages. Continued collaboration, improved data sharing, and adherence to the 2008 SNA framework are essential for the project's success. The follow-up mission in September 2018 will assess the progress made and ensure that the revised deadlines are met.