2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Montenegro_Technical_Assistance_Report_22页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Technical Assistance Mission on External Sector Statistics in Montenegro (January 2018)

Core Content

This Technical Assistance Report outlines the findings and recommendations of an IMF Statistics Department (STA) mission to Montenegro, conducted from December 4-15, 2017. The mission aimed to support Montenegro in improving its external sector statistics (ESS) compilation, specifically focusing on the International Investment Position (IIP), External Debt Statistics (EDS), Reserves Data Template (RDT), and Balance of Payments (BoP). The mission was requested by the Central Bank of Montenegro (CBM), the main ESS compiling agency, and supported by the IMF's European Department.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Current Status of ESS Compilation

Montenegro compiles Balance of Payments (BoP) data on a quarterly basis using BPM6 methodology.
The country participates in CDIS (inward direct investment only) but has not yet compiled IIP or EDS.
RDT is not yet compiled, but the country is working towards meeting the requirements for the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).

2. Mission Outcomes

The mission provided a methodology to estimate euro circulating in Montenegro using the currency in circulation to deposits ratio from neighboring countries.
The CBM is now ready to start compiling IIP and EDS in 2018.
The net errors and omissions in the BoP have been significantly reduced after implementing the mission's recommendations.
The CBM plans to collaborate with the Ministry of Finance (MOF) to prepare a draft RDT and submit it for STA review.

3. Key Recommendations

Target Date	Recommendation
June 2018	Start compiling IIP and EDS
June 2018	Estimate euro circulating in Montenegro
June 2018	Estimate remittances brought in cash
June 2018	Start compiling portfolio investment position data in IIP
June 2018	Start compiling other investment position data in IIP
June 2018	Start compiling deposits data for other sectors using LBS and Form RN-1
December 2018	Implement trade credit survey
June 2018	Start compiling EDS in cooperation with MOF and report to the World Bank
June 2018	Obtain data from MOF, prepare a draft RDT, and submit it for STA review

4. Priority Actions

Start compiling IIP and EDS using BPM6 methodology.
Estimate euro circulating using the currency in circulation to deposits ratio derived from neighboring countries.
Estimate remittances in cash using the cash/bank transfer ratio.
Adjust euro bond issuance data using ITRS to reflect residents' holdings.
Incorporate exchange rate and stock index changes into portfolio investment position data.
Expand coverage of FDI or loan surveys to include portfolio investment data.
Implement the trade credit survey and incorporate results into BoP.
Prepare and submit the RDT for STA review.

5. Data Sources

Data Set	Source
Balance of Payments	BPM6 basis, quarterly data
IIP - Direct Investment	Annual FDI survey, data from ITRS and tax authority
IIP - Portfolio Investment	MOF (government liabilities), MFS (DTCs), ITRS (other sectors)
IIP - Other Investment	LBS and Form RN-1 (deposits), Forms KO-1 and KZ-1 (loans)
RDT	MOF for guarantees and debt service schedules, CBM for euro bonds and loans

6. Net Errors and Omissions

The main source of net errors and omissions is cash remittances not captured by the ITRS.
The mission proposed a cash/bank transfer ratio based on neighboring countries' data.
The estimated ratio was applied to resident deposits to derive the amount of cash remittances.
After incorporating these estimates, net errors and omissions and current account deficit have significantly decreased.

7. Implementation Plan

The CBM plans to start compiling IIP and EDS by June 2018.
The FDI survey will be conducted on a quarterly basis, focusing on largest enterprises.
The RDT will be prepared and submitted for review by June 2018.
The trade credit survey is planned for December 2018.
Training and capacity building for ESS are ongoing and will continue.

8. Institutional Collaboration

The CBM collaborates with MOF for EDS and RDT preparation.
The CBM also works with tax authority and ITRS for data validation and cross-checking.
The World Bank is involved in the EDS reporting process.
The BIS provides Locational Banking Statistics (LBS) for other sectors' deposits data.

9. Methodological Adjustments

The CBM is advised to adjust euro bond issuance data to reflect residents' holdings.
The CBM should incorporate exchange rate and stock index changes into portfolio investment position data.
The CBM is encouraged to explore direct data collection for portfolio investment in the medium term.

Conclusion

The mission highlighted Montenegro's strong data collection framework and methodological expertise, particularly in the Balance of Payments Division. It emphasized the importance of improving data quality, increasing data frequency, and expanding coverage to meet international standards. The CBM is well-positioned to start compiling IIP and EDS by June 2018, and the mission has provided clear guidance and methodology for these improvements. The RDT and cash remittances estimation are also top priorities for the coming months.