20220512-IMF-Mongolia_Technical_Assistance_Report-High_Frequency_Indicators_Mission_11页_501kb

Summary of IMF Technical Assistance Mission to Mongolia (August 2021)

The IMF conducted a remote technical assistance mission from March 1–12, 2021, funded by the Data for Decisions trust fund, to support Mongolia in developing a Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (MIEA). This report summarizes mission outcomes, recommendations, and key focus areas.

Purpose

The MIEA provides timely, high-frequency data to complement quarterly and annual national accounts, aiding economic surveillance. It evaluates experimental results from January 2010 to January 2021, including COVID-19 impacts, but faces challenges like incomplete data coverage and outdated practices.

Background

The 2019 mission identified three key recommendations (dedicated team, workplan, database), but implementation was slow due to staffing issues, budget constraints, and focus on GDP rebase. This mission builds on that, focusing on improving data sources, frameworks, and seasonal adjustment.

Priority Recommendations

• Update indicator base years for consistency with national accounts.
• Improve monthly allocation of output in the agriculture sector.
• Review and correct quarterly industrial production index spikes.
• Transition to seasonal adjustment for all economic series.

Focus Areas

1. Source Data Assessment: Database development for 72% of GDP indicators, with 12% agricultural data gaps.
2. MIEA Framework: Aligns with quarterly GDP estimates, producing unadjusted and seasonally adjusted series.
3. Seasonal Adjustment: Equates raw and adjusted data annually, models COVID-19 impacts, and reviews outlier treatment.

Conclusion

The mission recommends a detailed action plan for 2022 to complete MIEA development, enhance data quality, and standardize seasonal adjustments for better economic performance monitoring.